A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THECENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTICWATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDSCOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THEWEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THISSYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ISLOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 135 MILESSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONEFORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT ADDITIONALDEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
Al GFS se le ha ido la cabeza definitivamente, observar lo que se puede cocer por África con otra Onda Tropical... curioso que sea a medio plazo, veo a los trópicos muy alterados de golpe, anda todo muy adelantado...GFS A 168 horas tendríamos a dicha Onda Tropical como Huracán en las inmediaciones del suroeste de Cabo Verde.
Cita de: Hardstyle en Sábado 04 Agosto 2012 17:58:24 pmAl GFS se le ha ido la cabeza definitivamente, observar lo que se puede cocer por África con otra Onda Tropical... curioso que sea a medio plazo, veo a los trópicos muy alterados de golpe, anda todo muy adelantado...GFS A 168 horas tendríamos a dicha Onda Tropical como Huracán en las inmediaciones del suroeste de Cabo Verde. Sí que se le ha ido "la olla", sí. Y ojo con las interacciones, porque ve a esa O.T. completamente formada, ascender de SE a NNW. Y hay una BFA aislada sobre el entorno de las Azores, que en vez de ascender, podría bajar algo más hacia el Sur y "tirar" de ella desde su flanco occidental. ¿Pero qué digo? Si encima me lo voy a creer y todo.
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1100 AM PDT MON AUG 6 2012FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREALOCATED ABOUT 670 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVECHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ANDTHIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY ORTWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPHDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER ROBERTSNNNN
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