Seguimiento general de sistemas tropicales. (Análisis, Modelos, Invests...)

GFS, ECMWF y GFS contemplan un nuevo desarrollo de una onda tropical, en la MDR, de cara a 7-10 días. Para CMC se desarrolla de manera virulenta, pero vamos, son ellos solos. Si lo señalo es porque los dos modelos a gran escala más importantes, llevan unas salidas insinuadolo

Asi que parece que DANNY vendrá antes de que termine el mes

Tambien los globales, apuestan por movimiento en el EPAC, independientemente del desarrollo de la perturbación que comenta Sagrajeño


 

En el Eastern Pacific ya ha sido nombrado como invest 92 esa onda,ademas  esta en nivel naranja


1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)    Pressure      Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 08/21/09  13.3N 132.4W     25        1009       Invest

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

Novedades en el Atlantico apararece una onda de nivel amarrillo.


1. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml#contents


Y tambien por el East Pacific la onda naranja sube a nivel rojo y aparece una onda de nivel amarrillo.


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

Todo continua igual en el Atlantico



1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml#contents

En cambio por el East Pacific  continua habiendo una onda nivel rojo, otra de nivel amarrillo y aparece otro onda mas de nivel amarrillo



1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1070 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


3. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

Mmmm.....Deste ayer hay una circulación algo "sospechosa" al Sureste de BILL, con visos de querer formar convección.  ¿Qué podrá ser?

Y no hay que perder de vista a todo lo que se está desarrollando en el Centro del continente Africano y salga por las puestas de Caboverde, que tienen muchas posibilidades de desarrollo.

Hay cambios en el Atlántico desaparece la onda de nivel amarillo.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml#contents

Tambien hay cambios en el East Pacific: Una onda nivel amarillo desaparece,otra onda nivel amarillo aumenta su desarrollo a nivel naranja y ademas ha sido nombrado  invest 93



1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

 Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)    Pressure      Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 08/22/09  13.0N 106.5W     25        1009       Invest
00 GMT 08/23/09  13.5N 107.5W     25        1009       Invest

En el Central Pacific Storm Advisories aparece un invest, ha sido nombrado como invest 94

 Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)    Pressure      Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 08/23/09  10.8N 152.1W     25        1009       Invest
12 GMT 08/23/09  10.8N 152.6W     25        1009       Invest

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/cp200994.track.html#a_topad



http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/

Mmmm....la estructura "sospechosa" que se observaba rotando al Sureste del BILL el pasado Sábado, parece que ya está en seguimiento nivel "amarillo" para el NHC. Se trata de una depresión aislada en niveles altos, que está interaccionando con los "restos" de la Onda Tropical, catalogada también en nivel Amarillo, en las mismas fechas y que dejó de ser seguida por el NHC, al perder consistencia.
Saludos.

En  el  East Pacific  la onda de nivel naranja aumenta a nivel rojo.( fue nombrado en su momento como invest 93)

 Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)    Pressure      Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 08/22/09  13.0N 106.5W     25        1009       Invest
00 GMT 08/23/09  13.5N 107.5W     25        1009       Invest
18 GMT 08/23/09  16.4N 111.4W     25        1008       Invest
00 GMT 08/24/09  16.1N 112.4W     25        1008       Invest
06 GMT 08/24/09  16.1N 115.2W     25        1008       Invest




1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

El GFS, junto a NOGAPS, vislumbra el desarrollo de la próxima onda que sale de las costas africanas.

Aumentan las posibilidades de desarrollo en el MDR.

Esa posible onda puede tener desarrollo