Ciclón Tropical MICK Categoría 2 (Huracán Cat. 1 S.S-Fiji)

El JTWC lanza el 1º aviso sobre este sistema; 35kt y 996mb asignados igualmente por el NRL.

- Por ahora el Servicio Meteorológico de Fiji, no hace mención al sistema.

- Picos de intensidad de 50kt. Pronóstico de debilitamiento (36-48 horas) según aumente la cizalladura y baje la SST en su trayectoria SE.

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 175.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

tecnica Dvorak
  CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.1 / 989.6mb/ 47.0kt

satelites



 
 


a ver si va a sonar la flauta...

un saludo

Aviso nº1 del SM de Fiji.

- Reseñar las buenas condiciones que se le dan al sistema para que se desarrolle, tanto a nivel troposférico como de cizalladura en descenso.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 12/2149 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F [997HPA] CENTRE NEAR 13.3S 175.5E AT 121800
UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS.

ORAGNISATION IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 24 HRS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND EAST. DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM NORTH. WARMING OF CENTRAL OVERCAST EVIDENT. PRIMARY
BAND TO EAST CONTINUALLY PEELING OFF. DEPRESSION MOVING INTO
DECREASING SHEAR. TD01F IS STEERED BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK BASED ON 0.4 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT2.5. THUS
T2.5/2.5/1.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INTENSIFICATION IN
THE SHORT TERM ALONG A SOUTHEAST TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS
MODERATE.   



THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130230 UTC.

Dispares datos los que se ofrecen para el seguimiento del sistema, que ya es nombrado como MICK.

- JTWC: 45kt.

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 175.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT


- Fiji; RSMC NADI: 995mb, 35kt.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 13/0247 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK [995HPA] CAT 1 CENTRE NEAR 13.9S 175.4E AT
130000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE


- Radar de Nadi (Fiji)

http://www.met.gov.fj/radar/long-RDR60.html

- Mientras que el NRL le asigna 55kt, 982mb.

MICK aumenta su organización con un ojo casi definido como se aprecia en multicanal... esos 55kt son cortos y pronto será cat1. 

''eye like feature''?
 



segun dvorak, 45 nudos

un saludo

Fiji está directa en la trayectoria de MICK, que mantiene los 55kt, 982mb.

- Aviso 8 RMSC NADI.

STORM WARNING 008 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 13/1901 UTC 2009 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone MICK 01F centre [987hPa] category 1 was located near
16 decimal 4 South 176 decimal 5 East at 131800 UTC.
Position fair.
Repeat position 16.4S 176.5E at 131800 UTC.
Cyclone moving south-southeast at 08 knots but expected to gradually
turn southeast.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre increasing to
55 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 nautical miles of centre in
sectors from north through east to southwest and within 100 miles of
centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 17.6S 177.5E at 140600 UTC
              and near 18.4S 178.7E at 141800 UTC

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj

This warning cancels and replaces warning 007.








- Radar de largo alcance: eye like feature.

http://www.met.gov.fj/radar/long-RDR60.html

Aviso nº 4 del JTWC, MICK 65kt (Cat1), 974mb.

- Alcanza por tanto su pico de intensidad. MICK ha pasado literalmente sobre Fiji (Nadi) lo que incluso ha provocado algo de desorganización en su LLCC, como comenta el JTWC en el parte de las 03:00UTC, algo evidente en el multicanal, más actualizado.

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 177.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT


THE FORECAST KEEP INTENSITY AT 65 KNOTS THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE OF THE LLCC AS IT CROSSES
FIJI IS EXPECTED, WITH A BRIEF REORGANIZATION UPON CROSSING.

- Mientras tanto RSMC Nadi (Fiji) habla de categoría 2, 60kt.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 14/0235 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK [975HPA] CAT 2 CENTRE NEAR 17.3S 177.3E AT
140000 UTC MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHEAST AT 010KNOTS. POSITION GOOD BASED
ON RADAR, MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO
SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. 

ORAGNISATION IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS WITH BANDING EYE FORMING. PRIMARY
BAND CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTLY. CYCLONE LIES JUST EAST OF AN UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. OUTLFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH, EAST AND NORTH AND
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SHEAR OVER SYSTEM BETWEEN 20 TO 25KT. SST
AROUND 28C. SYSTEM MOVING INTO STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SST. CYCLONE
STEERED BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK BASED ON >1.75
DEG EMBD DIST YIELDING A DT4.0. PT AND MET=4. FT BASED ON MET, THUS
T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SHORT TERM
INTENSIFICATION AND A FORECAST SOUTHEAST TRACK.

Último aviso del JTWC sobre MICK...

WTPS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 177.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

Momento álgido de MICK según los satélites de la NASA