Super Tifón UTOR Categoria 4 (11W - E de Luzón - Pacífico Occidental)

Tenemos nueva Depresión Tropical con 25 Kts. todavía a muchos cientos de millas al NE de Filipinas, en pleno Pacífico Occidental. Lo curioso es que no aparece actualizada en la página de la Navy, pero sí en las demás agenc¡as. Y más cuando el JTWC se huele que será un fuerte tifón.
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 134.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
NORTHWARD OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
PPN12 PGTW 090006
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NE OF PALAU)
B. 08/2332Z
C. 13.4N
D. 134.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5   STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
LESS THAN A .20 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0, PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.

Aumenta su fuerza y numerosas bandas convectivas rodean su centro. Posiblemente sea nombrada en el siguiente parte. Y ojo que va derechita a Luzón.
11WELEVEN.30kts-1000mb-138N-1325E

En pocas horas, según el JTWC, alcanzará la cat de tormenta tropical, así pues tenemos UTOR a punto de caramelo. En menos de 48 horas podría ser tifón. Buenas perspectivas.

Nace UTOR y viene bastante fuerte. El JTWC y la Navy le dan un pico máximo de intensidad de 90 Kts. que se me antojan cortos, viendo la evolución del ciclón en las últimas horas. Una vez pasada Luzón, que se preparen en Hainan y la última parada en Hanoi.
11W-UTOR.45kts-989mb-135N-1317E.

2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 556 NM
EASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-DEEPENING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE 0032Z MSI IMAGE INDICATES CLOUD TOPS ARE SINKING NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, SUGGESTING A PIN-HOLE EYE
FEATURE MAY BE FORMING. A 092325Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE TCB
AND IMPROVING ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, ALTHOUGH A MICROWAVE EYE IS
NOT YET EVIDENT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION,
WHICH IS BASED ON THE MSI AND FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE AND
AVAILABLE AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TS 11W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDERNEATH A
DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WITH LOW (05-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
TUTT CELL NEAR TAIWAN AND INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A ZONAL PATTERN OVER
EASTERN ASIA WITH A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EAST CHINA SEA AND EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO INDOCHINA.
CONSEQUENTLY, TS 11W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. THE DYNAMICAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS (GFS,
NAVGEM, ECMWF) INDICATE POSSIBLE WEAK BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
MINOR DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA (INVEST 97W). TS
11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90-95
KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THEN WEAKEN AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER LUZON BEFORE TAU
48. AFTER RE-EMERGING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO RE-INTENSIFY TO ABOUT 70 KNOTS AT TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DIVERGED SOMEWHAT IN
THE LATEST PACKAGE, WITH HALF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS TAKING A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARDS HONG KONG AS A RESULT OF A DEEPENING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS A STRONG STR, WITH CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IS ALSO SEEN AMONG THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NORTHWARD MOTION INTO THE STR MAY BE RESULTING
FROM THE POTENTIAL BINARY INTERACTION NOTED ABOVE. THE JTWC FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE STR TO MAINTAIN INTO THE INDOCHINA REGION, RESULTING
IN A TRACK OVER HAINAN ISLAND AND THEN TOWARDS HANOI, VIETNAM. TS
11W SHOULD INTENSIFY TO APPROXIMATELY 75 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL
OVER HAINAN. AFTER THAT TIME, LAND INTERACTION, DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING VWS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO INCREASING SPREAD
AMONG THE GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72, THE FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE HAS
DECREASED TO LOW.//

11WUTOR.55kts-982mb-136N-1305E Lo dicho. Cuidadín con UTOR que está en un proceso de rápida intensificación, con muy buenas condiciones a todos los niveles, incluso habla de un "OJO" muy pequeño en la última pasada del microondas. Menudo bicho va a salir de aquí.
TPPN12 PGTW 100328

A. TROPICAL STORM 11W (UTOR)

B. 10/0232Z

C. 13.9N

D. 129.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. 1.0 WRAP YIELDS A
DT OF 3.5. PT WAS 4.0; MET WAS 2.5. DBO DT.

Lo dicho. A la velocidad del rayo.
TPPN12 PGTW 100948

A. TYPHOON 11W (UTOR)

B. 10/0832Z

C. 13.9N

D. 128.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D3.0/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY WW WITH CMG EYE
ADJUSTMENT YIELDS A 5.5 DT. MET YIELDS A 3.5. PT YIELDS A 5.0. DBO PT. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

Buenas.
UTOR sigue con su proceso de fuerte intensificación y alcanza la Cat. 2 en un abrir y cerrar de ojos. El palo que se pueden llevar en Filipinas, porque si sigue a este ritmo, podría llegar a sus costas con Cat. 3. En estos momentos está situado a unas 420 millas al Este de Manila.
11WUTOR.90kts-956mb-140N-1282E

11WUTOR.100kts-948mb-144N-1259E

2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 11W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EASTWARD OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
STEADY EXPANSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
AS WELL AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RE-FORMATION OF THE PIN-HOLE EYE. 
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND POSITION
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS, BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE IMPROVEMENT IN
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 11W
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED THROUGH INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. TY 11W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH
TAU 72. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK NEAR 110 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT APPROXIMATELY 18 HOURS,
PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER LUZON. WHILE TRACKING OVER LUZON, TERRAIN AND
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY. ONCE TY 11W
RE-EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72.
DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT
EASTWARD OUTLIER. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND PRIOR FORECASTS. GIVEN A STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK, CONSISTENT WITH JTWC
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JAPANESE
ENSEMBLE MEAN, THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE STRENGTH OR
ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING STR. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO
OFFSET THE IMPACT OF THE OUTLIER ON THE CONSENSUS, AND IS LAID
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. AROUND TAU 72,
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER WATER, WITH RAPID DISSIPATION AFTER LANDFALL
OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. DUE TO IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG THE JTWC
CONSENSUS MODELS, FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE IN THE TAU 72 TO 120
PERIOD IS NOW HIGH.//

Según el último parte del JTWC UTOR ya ha alcanzado la categoría 4 con vientos sostenidos de 212 km/h y rachas de 260 km/h. El impacto en la costa este de Luzón será tremendo.

¡¡Ay madre, que le falta tan solo 7 Kts. para la Cat.5!!
11WUTOR.130kts-926mb-154N-1238E
EDITO: El nombre de este tifón, tendría que haber sido borrado hace tiempo, tal como lo hacen en el NHC, porque ya dio muchos motivos para ello, en el pasado. Un solo ejemplo fue el año 2006. Ahora las autoridades filipinas dan la alerta, cuando todavía era un Cat.2 No me lo quiero imaginar entrando como Cat.5.
http://noticias.terra.com/internacional/asia/alerta-en-el-noreste-de-filipinas-por-la-llegada-del-tifon-utor,290773cd19560410VgnCLD2000000ec6eb0aRCRD.html

Vaya pasada de sistema. La intensificación de las últimas 24 horas ha sido tremenda... 

Las Filipinas han debilitado su estructura, pero la convección sigue siendo muy intensa y parece que las condiciones  atmosféricas circundantes seguirán siendo buenas para mantenerlo. Tengo la impresión de que se va a debilitar más de lo que indican las previsiones teniendo en cuenta su estado actual y el tiempo que tardará en atravesar la isla del todo, de todas formas no parece que la velocidad máxima del viento vaya a bajar de unos 70-80kt, lo cual sigue siendo bastante respetable.


Un saludo.

La orografía de Luzón está dañando al sistema, pero en cuanto pase la isla, volverán las buenas condiciones. De todas formas, su recuperación va a depender del tiempo que tenga hasta llegar a las costas continentales, por lo que un aumento en la velocidad de traslación, haría que el sistema no sobrepasase los 100 Kts.
De momento, 11WUTOR.95kts-952mb-165N-1208E.