Este va camino de los 900 mb. de presión en su centro
11WMUIFA 140Kt. 918mb. 
Según el JTWC ya ha alcanzado la
categoría 5 y consideran en la discursión que en 36 horas podrá llegar a los
155 Kts. Esto sí que es una mala bestia.
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 132.4E.
RMKS/SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY MUIFA IS APPROACHING THE
END OF A 12 HOUR EPISODE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPECCABLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
BEAUTIFUL SYMMETRY AND A TIGHT PINHOLE 11 NM EYE. A 301718Z AMSRE
IMAGE PROVIDES AN EXCELLENT DEPICTION OF THE INTENSITY AND SYMMETRY
IN THE EYEWALL. IT ALSO SHOWS NO SIGN OF A SECONDARY, OUTER EYEWALL
FORMING, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A BRAKING MECHANISM TO THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE. EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED INTO POSITIVE
TERRITORY, RESULTING IN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 7.0 (140 KNOTS) FROM
RJTD AND KNES AND 6.0 (90) KNOTS FROM RJTD. THE SPECTACULAR
INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 300000Z AND NOW WAS FACILITATED BY THE
PILING ON OF DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO AN ALREADY WELL-DEVELOPED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAD BEEN PRESENT SINCE THE GENITIVE
STAGES. UNTIL YESTERDAY, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAD BEEN IMPEDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
BUT YESTERDAY, IMPINGEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT EASED. THEN
NEAR 300000Z, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL OPENED UP
WHILE ANOTHER CHANNEL DEVELOPED TO THE EAST, INTO THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF THE TUTT. SSTY 11W NOW HAS A SINGULAR OUTFLOW POINT ABOVE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND EXCELLENT EXHAUST IN ALL
QUADRANTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NO MORE THAN 5 KNOTS. THE TUTT
CELL HAS RETROGRADED WESTWARD AND IS NOW NEAR TAIWAN AND OPENING ON
THE STORM, WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND
BRING A RETURN TO A SLOWER, MORE STEADY RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. STY
11W IS ON A POLEWARD TRACK IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A
BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTS BETWEEN THE SEASONAL
ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN HIGH, WHICH HAS BEEN
DISPLACED ALL THE WAY TO THE DATELINE. A WEAK PUSH IS BEING PROVIDED
ON THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT BY AN ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AS STY 11W CLEARS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE, IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST OF NORTH, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLOW, ERRATIC MOVEMENT ALONG A NET NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 42. AT THAT POINT (WHICH WILL COME NEAR THE 20TH LATITUDE), THE
RETROGRADING BONIN HIGH WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO
BECOME THE STEERING FORCE, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
THE SLOW RETROGRADE OF THE BONIN HIGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, GUIDANCE ZEROS IN ON A
TRACK CLOSE TO OKINAWA. THE INTENSITY TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE A SLOW
AND STEADY UP TO THE POINT OF THE WESTWARD TURN, AND THEN A SLOW
DECLINE THEREAFTER. THE DECLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE A FUNCTION OF
DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RATHER THAN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
HIGH, THE DEPTH OF THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM DECREASES BY NEARLY 50 PER
CENT NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
STAYS WITH BOTH CONSENSUS AND ECMWF THROUGH TAU 72, AS THEY ARE IN
NEAR EXACT AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU 72, THE TWO DIVERGE, WITH THE ECMWF
VORTEX TRACKER STEERING THE STORM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, WHILE CONSENSUS
STRIKES THE NORTHERN TIP OF OKINAWA. CONSENSUS IS BEING PULLED
POLEWARD BY GFDN AND GFS, WHICH ARE ALREADY SHOWING THEY ARE NOT
HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 72
WILL BE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL, ANY SCENARIO
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR OKINAWA. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY
IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72, WITH DYNAMIC AIDS GENERALLY
SHOWING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS (PARTICULARLY STIPS 11)
INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF ORGANIZATION OF STY 11W, STIPS
GUIDANCE WILL BE DISMISSED OVER THE NEAR TERM, BUT OVER THE MEDIUM
AND LONG TERM, THEIR ABILITY TO FACTOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INTO THE
INTENSITY TREND IS USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECASTING A DE-
INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z
AND 312100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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