Tal como comentábamos en el Seguimiento, de los tres sistemas era el que más cerca estaba de convertirse en ciclón tropical, puesto que su nivel de desarrollo era alto y las agencias ya habían lanzado la alerta por formación tropical:

Citar1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.9S 161.1E TO 5.9S 157.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.2S 160.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.3S
161.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2S 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 875 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO A RECENT (292226Z) METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT
A SOLID LLCC HAS DEVELOPED WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AND THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT, WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
THE 15-20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VWS IS CURRENTLY HAMPERING OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH

De forma rápida y concisa, ya tenemos nueva Depresión Tropical y las agencias no se andan por las ramas. Pico de intensidad inicial previsto de 80 kts.

Citar2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
204 NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION
WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC. A 301021Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT CORE WINDS WITH STRONGER (25 TO 30 KNOT)
WINDS SURROUNDING CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EIR LOOP AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES 09W IS LOCATED IN A MODERATE (20 KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY
THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, NAMELY THE POLEWARD CHANNEL ENHANCED BY THE
TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH. TD 09W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 09W WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72.
MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST, BUT FAVORABLE SST AND HIGH OHC CONTENT
VALUES WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS PERIOD. FURTHERMORE, AS TD 09W CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONSUME AND/OR
SUFFOCATE 94W, THE DISTURBANCE THAT IS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 148.8E (SEE
ABPW BULLETIN FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS DISTURBANCE).
   C. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR, CAUSING TD 09W TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

CHAN-HOM sube a 40 kts. y el JTWC aumenta el pico de intensidad hasta los 85 kt. pero vamos, que todo va a depender de si recurva ó no, antes de lo previsto.

CHAN-HOM sube hasta los 55 kts. aunque viendo las últimas imágenes del SAT, está dando un importante catapum. De hecho las agencias elevan el pico de intensidad previsto hasta los 130 kts. ¿¿Categoría 5 a la vista??

CHAN-HOM alcanza la Categoría 1 S.S. pero es que ADT no se anda con rodeos y sus estimaciones.....
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 978.2mb/ 79.6kt

Fuerte traspiés momentáneo de CHAN-HOM debido a la interacción del Tifón con una "Baja" remanente, que le ha dejado casi desprovisto de convección y con su circulación muy tocada. Su aspecto deshilachado y muy cizallado en las imágenes del SAT lo dice todo y pasa a tener 45 kts. según las agencias, de forma momentánea, hasta que se quite de encima los efectos de esta "Baja".

Comienza a reorganizarse de nuevo. Pico de intensidad de 125 nudos camino de Shanghai.

Cuidado con la fuerte intensificación que está dando en estos momentos CHAN-HOM. El JTWC establece en su último pronóstico esa posibilidad para las próximas 72 horas, debido a la mejora de las condiciones que se va a encontrar en su camino. Vuelve al pico inicial previsto de 130 kts y ya veremos si no alcanza la máxima categoría.

Esperando una buena imagen del SAT en elmicroondas, ya asoma su "ojo". Oficialmente alcanza los 75kts-967mb, pero vamos, "esto" está más cerca de la Cat.2

Ahora mismo por esas zonas:



Las posibles trayectorias que seguirán:



Dos animaciones de CHAN-HOM:

Excelente post, DavidDominguez Y a los demás, a ver si participamos más
CHAN-HOM sube a 85 kts y consigue la Categoría 2, aunque su aspecto no es todo lo bueno que debiera ser.

Otro major mas

100kts-948mb



Debe de rondar la categoría 4 con 115-120 nudos. A ver si actualiza la marina.