Sube un poco más
22W.FITOW.45kts.989mb.15N.131.5E
FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND GOOD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
105 KNOTS BY TAU 72
Pos eso, que catapum durante estos próximos 3 días
Después...
EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT TAU 120 WHILE THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, JUST SOUTH OF KOREA
La lógica dice que va a Korea como Extratropical, sobre todo si hacemos caso al ECMWF
Sin embargo...
A BIFURCATION HAS DEVELOPED PAST TAU 72. THE WESTERN
GROUPING, WHICH INCLUDES NAVGEM, EGRR, JGSM AND GFDN, SHOWS A STRONG
STR BUILDING IN, WHICH WOULD TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARDS TAIWAN. THE
EASTERN AND MORE POLEWARD GROUP, WHICH INCLUDES ECMWF, GFS, HWRF,
AND COAMPS-TC, SHOWS A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM AND A WEAKER STR, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY
TAUS AND FAVORS THE EASTERN GROUPING IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS THIS
GUIDANCE HAS PROVED MORE CONSISTENT. OVERALL, DUE TO THIS
BIFURCATION, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
Después de esos 3 días, los modelos cutres abren la puerta a viraje hacia Taiwán. Los modelos molones, camino de Korea pasando por el S de Japón. El JTWC hace caso, de momento, a los molones...., pero sin descartar na!
28 Respuestas
7538 Vistas