Tormenta Tropical IVO (09-E Sur de México. Pacífico Este)

Próximo sistemita en salir en el EPAC, dirección Baja California.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE THIS EVENING.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND MIDWEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.





Buen seguimiento.

1. UN AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESIÓN, UBICADO A UNOS 500 KILÓMETROS AL SUROESTE DE MANZANILLO (MÉXICO), CONTINÚA SU DESARROLLO LENTAMENTE Y CADA VEZ MEJOR ORGANIZADO. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES PARECEN ESTAR PROPICIAS PARA DESARROLLO ADICIONAL...Y PODRÍA FORMARSE UNA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL EN EL PRÓXIMO PAR DE DÍAS. ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UNA OPORTUNIDAD MEDIA...40 POR CIENTO, DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLÓN TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PRÓXIMAS 48 HORAS. Y UNA OPORTUNIDAD ALTA...80 POR CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLÓN TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PRÓXIMOS CINCO DÍAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE-NW Y LUEGO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE.

Aumenta la convección y las nuevas espirales comienzan a rodear el centro. Parece que tiene un poco de prisa.
Código rojo.
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

Lanzada la alerta de formación tropical, por parte de la Marina.

En el siguiente parte, tendremos nueva Depresión Tropical. Y luego tocaría IVO
94EINVEST.30kts-1006mb-165N-1113W
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME OVERNIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FORECASTER BRENNAN

Nace la novena Depresión Tropical de la temporada en el Pacífico Este. De momento tiene toda la convección algo desplazada al Sur y SE de su LLCC. 09ENINE.30kts-1003mb-170N-1115W
Este es el primer parte con el nuevo status:

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 221448
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 111.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STAY WELL OFF THE COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

09ENINE.30kts-1002mb-183N-1128W



Aire seco, cizalla moderada de componente norte, SST a la baja, OHC en mínimos... ya no le dará tiempo a organizarse mucho más.

 

Pues a pesar de los pesares.....09EIVO.35kts-1000mb-187N-1124W

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 231437
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 112.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IVO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.  A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Ivo es una luchadora de la hostia, finalmente logró alcanzar un pico de 40 kts, aunque actualmente posee 30kts y es Depresión Tropical.

DESPITE BEING OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24C...IVO HAS BEEN PRODUCING A
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ITS CENTER



Lo cual no quita que le queden 3 telediarios.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT
LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS