Tifón SAOALA Categoría 2 (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)

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Re:Tormenta Tropical SAOALA (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)
« Respuesta #12 en: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 00:05:33 am »
Boletín numero cuatro y donde destaca el incremento significativo del punto máximo de intensidad máxima prevista, pasamos de 75 KT (Tifón Categoría 1) a 90 KT.



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6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) PERSISTING OVER THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) INDICATIVE OF A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM.  HOWEVER, A 281833Z AMSU IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CDO
WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION, WHICH IS BASED ON THE AMSU
IMAGE. A 281226Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH, PRIMARILY, 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND AN ISOLATED 35 KNOT WIND.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE, ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED, NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE 28/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A WEAK EASTERN STR AND A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR
POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CHINA AND JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN STR. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT GROUPINGS.
NOGAPS AND GFS REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, WHICH IS INCORRECT DUE TO
ERRONEOUS INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF JAPAN.
THE SECOND GROUPING OF MODELS (JGSM, ECMWF, UKMO AND WBAR) PRESENT A
MORE CONSISTENT FORECAST (AND TIGHT GROUPING) TOWARD TAIWAN WITHOUT
ANY INDICATIONS OF ERRONEOUS CYCLONE INTERACTION. TS 10W IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC
MODEL TRACKERS WITH NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM TOWARD
SHANGHAI AND THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER
TAIWAN. THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN LOCATING THE SYSTEM CENTER AS WELL AS POTENTIAL
TRACK ERROR DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72. 
AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS
THE STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO THE STRONG STR POSITIONED OVER
CHINA AND JAPAN. TS 10W SHOULD PEAK AT 90 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL
OVER TAIWAN.//
NNNN

Sin cambio en su Track y a la espera del visible donde se nos mostrará el imponente CDO que se ha generado en las ultimas seis horas.


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Re:Tormenta Tropical SAOALA (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)
« Respuesta #13 en: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 00:20:36 am »
El Servicio Meteorológico de Filipinas eleva vientos y los sitúa en estos momentos en 45 KT.

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Tropical Storm "GENER" has intensified slightly as it continues to move closer to Extreme Northern Luzon

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Gener (Saola) located at 16.6° 125.5°E or 310 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
------------

1. Cagayan
2. Calayan Group of Island
3. Babuyan Group of Island

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Isabela
2. Kalinga
3. Apayao
4. Batanes Group of Island

Additional Information
=========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides Likewise, those living in coastal areas under Public Storm Warning Signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "Gener" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of central and southern Luzon, Visayas and eastern seaboard of Mindanao due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "Gener" and the southwest monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

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Re:Tormenta Tropical SAOALA (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)
« Respuesta #14 en: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 00:25:37 am »
Los japoneses elevan vientos máximos en estos momentos en 45 KT.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
6:00 AM JST July 29 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Saola (990 hPa) located at 16.6N 125.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 18.5N 123.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 19.4N 122.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Bashi Channel
69 HRS: 20.6N 122.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Bashi Channel

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Re:Tormenta Tropical SAOALA (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)
« Respuesta #15 en: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 13:20:15 pm »
Aumenta ligeramente su fuerza y mucho ojo al pronostico del GFS.

10WSAOLA.45kts-989mb-184N-1258E

29/0832 UTC   18.6N    125.8E       T3.0/3.0         SAOLA

GFS





También añadir que hay dos nuevas ondas tropicales por la zona que podrían interferir en el posible virulento desarrollo de SAOLA.

 ;)

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Re:Tormenta Tropical SAOALA (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)
« Respuesta #16 en: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 14:22:02 pm »
Elevado nuevamente el pico máximo de intensidad prevista por la marina americana, y según su pronostico  :-X Taipei se verá afectada por un posible Categoría 3 (95 KT).

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TOWARD TAIWAN WITHOUT ANY INDICATIONS
OF ERRONEOUS CYCLONE INTERACTION. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72.







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Re:Tormenta Tropical SAOALA (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)
« Respuesta #17 en: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 15:00:53 pm »
Topes cada más fríos cubren el centro de Soala.

Loop AVN + Rainbow



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov



La Agengia Meteorológica de Japón emite un nuevo aviso sobre SAOALA.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
21:00 PM JST July 29 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Waters

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Damrey (996 hPa) located at 25.8N 145.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 26.7N 143.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
48 HRS: 28.6N 138.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 30.6N 132.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan

Ellos hacen una medición de vientos con una media de 10 minutos no como la marina que lo hace con una media de 1 minuto.

 ;)

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Re:Tormenta Tropical SAOALA (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)
« Respuesta #18 en: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 15:10:29 pm »
Saoala se intensifica nuevamente y puede que finalice el día como Tifón Categoría 1, el europeo estanca durante 48 horas a Saoala en frente de las costas orientales de Taiwan  :-X, y el S.M.Taiwan emitirá avisos sobre el sistema cada séis horas.

10WSAOLA.50kts-985mb-188N-1252E

29/0832 UTC   18.6N    125.8E       T3.0/3.0         SAOLA



 ::)



Antes he puesto el penúltimo parte del JMA, el actual es el siguiente:

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
21:00 PM JST July 29 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (985 hPa) located at 18.2N 124.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 19.9N 123.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 21.6N 123.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.4N 122.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - South of Okinawa
« Última modificación: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 15:15:31 pm por Hardstyle »

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Re:Tormenta Tropical SAOALA (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)
« Respuesta #19 en: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 20:49:43 pm »
 :cold: :cold: :cold:

Luzón se esta comiendo lo que no esta escrito indirectamente y Soala cada vez mostrando un aspecto más amenazador, los topes siguen enfriándose cada vez más rápido alrededor de su centro.



Mantiene intensidad.


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Re:Tormenta Tropical SAOALA (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)
« Respuesta #20 en: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 21:07:35 pm »


Center Temp : -76.2C    Cloud Region Temp : -74.8C

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Re:Tormenta Tropical SAOALA (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)
« Respuesta #21 en: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 22:37:28 pm »
Aumenta un poco más su fuerza y destacar el bestial tamaño del sistema.

10WSAOLA.55kts-982mb-193N-1248E




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Re:Tormenta Tropical SAOALA (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)
« Respuesta #22 en: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 23:29:31 pm »
La marina aumenta a 100 KT el pico máximo que podría tener Saoala y mantiene Track en su ultimo boletín.






Saoala- Damrey y las otras dos Ondas Tropicales...

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Re:Tormenta Tropical SAOALA (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)
« Respuesta #23 en: Domingo 29 Julio 2012 23:38:40 pm »
Seguimiento de nivel :aplause:

Bonito sistema este Saoala, que mantiene esos topes fríos.


Enorme seguimiento ;)