Tifón SAOALA Categoría 2 (10.W - GENER - Mar De Filipinas - Pacífico W)

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Gracias Pepe 

Tifón Categoría 1 (65 KT)



Pico aumentado a 105 KT.

Me parece que esta inmerso en una fase de rapada intensificación a raíz de la ultima imagen del canal AVN... 



Ese Eye tan pequeñito denota que la presión va a caer literalmente y los vientos no son para nada los actuales 65 KT.

Se me olvido comentar que la marina americana ya no tiene previsto que Saoala aterrice en Taiwan de manera directa, pero sus efectos se harán notar por su relativa cercanía.

Radar de Taiwan



http://www.cwb.gov.tw

Según la Navy, baja a 55 Kts. Algo de aire seco se le está colando por la parte Norte y NE del sistema. Supongo que será algo transitorio.

Según la Navy, baja a 55 Kts. Algo de aire seco se le está colando por la parte Norte y NE del sistema. Supongo que será algo transitorio.

El que esta en plan chupón a base de bien es su hijo Damrey, creo que no hay intrusión de aire seco en Saoala, pero no entiendo la bajada de velocidad de vientos 





 

El JTWC confirma la bajada de intensidad, a la vez que una rebaja sustancial en el pico máximo de intensidad prevista, pasamos de 105 KT a 90 KT

WDPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS A THROUGH RE-
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS LED TO THE
SYSTEM BEING DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON LEVELS TO TROPICAL STORM LEVELS
FOR THE PAST THREE BEST TRACK POSITIONS. AS THE SYSTEM WAS
PREVIOUSLY BEING BEST TRACKED AT 65 KNOTS, THIS REPRESENTS A SMALL
DECREASE OF 10 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES INDICATING 55 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN MAINTAINING INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT RECENT
INDICATIONS IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE OUTFLOW
CHANNELS FOR TS 10W ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SUBSTANTIALLY AND WILL
LEAD TO STEADY INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND TRACK AS TS 10W REMAINS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE HAS BEEN A CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASED ON THE
RE-ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY HAS DECREASED BUT IS NOT DIRECTLY REFLECTED ON
THE WARNING GRAPHIC AS THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU
48 AND TAU 72.
   B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE BUILDING NER UNTIL A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) PICKS UP AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO VENT THE SYSTEM AS IT
INTENSIFIES THROUGH TAU 60. MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS NOT WELL
REPRESENTED BY THE GRAPHICAL FORECAST, BUT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
AROUND 105 KNOTS BY TAU 60. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST
AFTER TAU 72. 
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 10W WILL TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BEYOND TAU
72 AS TS 10W MAKES LANDFALL. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96 THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT TS 11W, CURRENTLY LOCATED 195 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, WILL MOVE WITHIN RANGE OF TS 10W, CAUSING A WEAK
BINARY INTERACTION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT
THIS, AS THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS TS 11W WELL TO THE
NORTH OF TS 10W. BASED ON THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER BINARY
INFLUENCE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

Si ellos lo dicen luego pasa lo que pasa y ZAS...

30/2032 UTC   20.8N    123.9E       T4.0/4.0         SAOLA

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/

Esta ligeramente afectado por una cizalladura moderada de componente noreste, pero a medida que se vaya desplazando a Taiwan será mucho más favorable.



Sin cambios en cuanto a su intensidad.

 

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Taiwan se va a regar a base de bien 

A medida que asciende de latitud y tal como comentaba Hardstyle la cizalladura le va dando un respiro y trata de cerrar el anillo por su parte Norte y NW. En el último parte se da cuenta de ello y en las imágenes del SAT se nota cierta mejora, por lo que la Navy le sube de nuevo a cat.1.

La marina rectifica nuevamente y eleva la intensidad máxima a 105 KT a la vez que Saoala se fortalece ligeramente.



31/1432 UTC   22.1N    124.0E       T4.5/4.5         SAOLA

10WSAOLA.75kts-967mb-224N-1237E



Sigue estando afectado por la cizalladura.