Adelanto del nuevo parte del JTWC
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 008
WTIO31 PGTW 021500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.0N 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.9N 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.7N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.6N 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.6N 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.9N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.7N 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 59.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
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El JTWC no apuesta, por el momento, porque PHET vaya a debilitarse