Mmmm, GFS empieza a apostar fuertemente por la formación de una Tormenta Tropical en Bengala, de características similares a KHAI-MUK, en punto de partida y en trayectoria final. ECMWF tambien la ve, pero entrando por la India antes de finales de semana y mucho más débil, que es cuando lo ve el modelo americano. NOGAPS ve un sistema mucho más debil, y entrando por Sri Lanka, no por la India
Veremos si se materializa
El JTWC ya sigue el sistema....
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 81.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 81.0E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF KOTTE, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER WATER FROM NORTHERN SRI LANKA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
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