Tormenta Subtropical JOEL (98S-Madagascar)

Pues eso. Meteo France ha emitido partes sobre el sistema, considerandolo Depresión Subtropical. Por cierto, afortunadamente, la página de Reunión se ha actualizado, y ahora emite partes en inglés  

Informations 16-20092010 at 2010/05/26 0600 UTC

Latitude: 25.2S
Longitude: 43.5E
Type: Subtropical depression
Sea Pressure: 1008Hpa
Mean Max. Wind: 46Km/h
Gust:

Last marine advisory about :  16-20092010

WTIO24 FMEE 260600
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/05/2010 AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/05/2010 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 1008 HPA
POSITION:           25.2S / 43.5E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER  EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND UP TO 380 NM IN THE EASTHERN SECTOR.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER, REACHING  NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2010/05/26 AT 18 UTC:
26.1S / 44.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H, VALID 2010/05/27 AT 06 UTC:
26.4S / 44.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, SUBTROPICAL.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SHOWS SUBTROPICAL STRUCTURE, WITH CONVECTION ORGANIZE IN CURVED BAND PATTERN.

THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS  WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN A LITLE OVER SEAS ABOUT 24 DEGRES.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE  OF THE MIDDLE LEVELS RIDGE PRESENT IN  THE EAST AND NORTH-EAST  OF THE SYSTEM.


Pues eso. Sistema Subtropical, bajo cizalladura débil que continuará asi las próximas 24 horas, sobre aguas de 24ºC

Pues a primera vista....



Que belleza...

pD:joder, es igual que Grace en mi avatar...

Lamentable el seguimiento del JTWC sobre este sistema

Meteo France actualiza datos, y le otorga nombre, y una fuerza de 50kt

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2010/05/27 AT 00 UTC:
25.9S / 43.6E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H, VALID 2010/05/27 AT 12 UTC:
26.1S / 44.8E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, SUBTROPICAL.

THE SYSTEM OF SMALL SIZE HAS DEVELOPPED VERY RAPIDLY TO REACH NAMING STAGE. CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED INTO  BANDED EYE PATTERN.
PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGH DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND HIGH ENVIRONNENTAL PRESSURES.

El sistema de pequeño tamaño se ha desarrollado muy rapidamente hasta alcanzar el nombre. La convección está organizada dentro de un patrón de bandas de ojo. La presión del sistema es alta debido al pequeño tamaño y al ambiente de altas presiones

¿Pero no es fisicamente imposible que un sistema sub-tropical puede llegar a ser huracán?
Al menos eso creo....
Digo yo que le nombrarán tropical antes de que posible y eventualmente logre 65 kt, por que con 60 kt está terriblemente cerca de la categoría 1 según la previsión.



 

No hay cambios en la fuerza de la tormenta, aunque Meteo France ya la considera Depresión otra vez


STORM FORCE WINDS 50KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS  30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM INTHE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2010/05/27 AT 18 UTC:
26.4S / 45.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H, VALID 2010/05/28 AT 06 UTC:
26.9S / 45.9E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, SUBTROPICAL

Al menos los franceses la mencionan, porque el JTWC ni caso

Pues Joel ayer consiguió55 kt, aunque actualmente ha bajado la intensidad de vientos.



aunque parece que se disipará en las próximas 48 horas.