ya lo comentabais en el seguimiento general, pero es que tiene muy buena pinta, ya veremos hasta donde llega.
es si, parece que en las ultimas horas se ha debilitado.
NWS GUAM Discussion of 97WAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
404 PM CHST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE MARIANAS MOVING NORTHEAST. TYPHOON NIDA TO THE NORTHWEST IS
NEARLY STATIONARY INDICATING LITTLE STEERING FLOW IN OUR AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE EVIDENT LACK OF STEERING FLOW IN MICRONESIA...ENDED UP
FAVORING THE GFS40 SOLUTION. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE SPINNING UP IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THE SPECIFICS END UP DIFFERING BECAUSE MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE IN A RUSH TO HURRY IT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS. THIS DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY UNTIL NIDA MOVES SOMEWHERE...SO FOR NOW AM
FAVORING THE GFS40 SOLUTION WHICH LEAVES THE CIRCULATION SITTING
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 24 HOUR PRESSURE
CHANGES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY INSPIRING EITHER WITH -1.1 AT POHNPEI
AND +0.6 AT CHUUK. SO LETTING THINGS WAIT AN EXTRA DAY OR TWO
DOES SEEM TO BE THE WAY TO GO FOR NOW. ECMWF-HIRES AND COAMPS WERE
FASTEST WITH THE UKMET BEING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT NOT MUCH. GFS
WAS SLOWEST WHICH AT THIS POINT SEEMS BEST. OTHER THAN REFRESHING
THE WINDS FROM THE LATEST GFS40 AND RECALCULATING THE WIND
DEPENDENT GRIDS...THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THIS PACKAGE WAS TO
DELAY THE ONSET AND CESSATION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN KEEPING
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS40 ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING SHIFT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.MARINE...
MAIN DRIVER FOR MARINE WEATHER WILL BE TYPHOON NIDA...WHICH IS
EVIDENTLY GOING NOWHERE ANYTIME SOON. IT IS STIRRING UP COLDER
WATER WHICH IS WHY THE JTWC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS SHIFTED FROM
RECURVATURE TO DISSIPATION. IT WILL TAKE A FEW DAYS FOR THAT TO
HAPPEN THOUGH...AND IN THE MEANTIME IT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIT LARGE
SWELLS OUR WAY. THEREFORE LEFT THE HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS THEY WERE SINCE THEY BOTH LOOKED FINE.
&&
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ONT HIGH SURF ADV FOR PALAU AND YAP...AND CHUUK WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR HIGHER SURF AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES. TY NIDA REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY AT 19N139E GENERATING LARGE SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST PACIFIC. SATELLITE SHOWS THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF POHNPEI.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD FROM POHNPEI AND CHUUK TO THE
EQUATOR. VARIOUS MODELS INITIALIZE THIS PATTERN DECENTLY...AND MOVE
THE CIRCULATION GENERALLY NW...BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES. FOR THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWED THE GFS ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS FOR A
SOMEWHAT SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LLC TOWARD THE NW. LONGER
TERM FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY FOR THIS WHOLE AREA...AND DEPENDS SO
MUCH ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
un saludo
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