Tormenta Tropical ADRIAN (01E - EPAC - sur de Centroamerica)

De la mano de Stewart tenemos seguimiento del posible primer sistema nombrado en el Pacifico Oriental.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 PM PDT Mon May 8 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south
of El Salvador. Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs
of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for a tropical depression to form during the next day
or so. The low is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest
or northwest, remaining well offshore of the coasts of Central
America and southeastern Mexico through at least Thursday. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 12 PM PDT Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

A punto de caramelo.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
920 AM PDT Tue May 9 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of El Salvador have become better
organized this morning.  If this development trend continues,
advisories will be initiated later today.  This system is forecast
to move slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest, remaining
well offshore of the coasts of Central America and southeastern
Mexico through at least Thursday.  If tropical cyclone formation
does not occur, another Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 9 PM PDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Según comentan posiblemente esta tarde (noche en España) tengamos la DT1 del EPAC en el 2017. Lo modelos de forma general ven movimiento al oeste en 48-72 y después un giro brusco al Norte o Noreste y bastantes papeletas de que llegue incluso a ser Huracán antes de impactar con centroamerica.

Mirando la imagen satélital diría que ya es DT, y cuidado no sea tormenta tropical.

Saludos

En efecto y como se esperaba, ya tenemos la Depresión Tropical No. 1 en el Pacífico Oriental.

Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017
400 PM CDT Tue May 09 2017

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON
DEVELOPS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.3N 91.3W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression One-E was located near latitude 9.3 North, longitude 91.3
West.  The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
(9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Saludos

A la izquierda de la imagen se le ve a la tempranera tormenta tropical Adrian, se espera que llegue a categoría 1 en su movimiento hacia el Nooeste

Adrián pierde fuelle rápidamente pese a adentrarse en aguas cálidas y con poca cizalladura. Supongo que el aire seco le estará dando problemas. Ahora mismo casi no presenta convección.

Según el NHC se espera que acabe disipándose. Ahora mismo posee 25kt - 1008hPa de intensidad.


Saludos.

  UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  11 MAY 2017    Time :   114500 UTC
      Lat :   11:02:11 N     Lon :   93:44:12 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                1.5 /1010.0mb/ 25.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                1.5     1.5     1.5

 Center Temp : +20.5C    Cloud Region Temp :  13.0C

 Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii : N/A
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1012mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES13
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.3 degrees