Muy atentos a la costa Este de los EE.UU, tenemos nuevo Invest justo en las costas de Carolina, tal vez pueda salir algo Sub-Tropical, las anomalías en en la SST son muy positivas.

Se está organizando a una velocidad realmente bestial, veremos a ver si todas esa convección profunda, consigue aguantar lo suficiente para que el NHC aumente su nivel por formación ciclónica.

  Se encuentra rodeado de aire seco 



Y los americanos como locos, cierto es que los modelos veían hace varias jornadas algo de movimiento para la zona, pero muy limitado por la moderada cizalladura.

De todas formas, estaremos atentos 

Fortalecimiento de su anillo convectivo y mostrando lo que podría ser un ELF





A ver si lanzan el Floater...

Si la convección sigue aguantando como lo está haciendo hasta ahora mismo, creo que se merece un nivel rojo en el próximo parte.

HOT TOWERS

No me había fijado en que el NCH había actualizado y por lo tanto... nivel naranja 50 %


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.  ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



Más claro el agua, adquiriendo características Tropicales.

Genial seguimiento Harstyle, 1000 gracias

Bonito aspecto el que está adquiriendo, a ver que es capaz de hacer.


Gracias por el curro compañero

93LINVEST.30kts-1009mb-326N-773W



Gracias a ti Pepe 

Cita de: Hardstyle en Sábado 19 Mayo 2012 16:54:53 PM
Se encuentra rodeado de aire seco 

Atlantic Ocean Basin:        Imagery
DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM
                     No Current Positions

Jeff Master confirma lo que comentaba de la inyección de aire seco.

The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm

CitarA hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics has formed in the waters off the coast of South Carolina, about 120 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach--a little going-away present for outgoing NHC director Bill Read, who retires on June 1! Residents along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast should pay attention to 93L, as it has the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm and hit the coast on Sunday or Monday, with North Carolina at highest risk. NHC designated this system Invest 93L Saturday morning. Wind shear is a moderate 20 knots over 93L, and the storm is over the warm waters of Gulf Stream, which are 81°F (27°C), just above the 26°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm, inhibiting development. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, through Monday, which is low enough that 93L has a decent chance of developing into the Atlantic's first tropical depression. Since 93L is very small, it is highly vulnerable to even a modest increase in wind shear or dry air, which could rapidly disrupt it. Conversely, the storm's small size and favorable positioning over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream mean it is also capable of suddenly organizing, and it would not be surprise to see 93L become Tropical Storm Alberto by Sunday. NHC is giving 92L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble resolving it, and we don't have very good forecasts of the storm right now. Steering currents are weak, and I expect 93L will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Sunday, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday which should lift it out to the northeast. Heavy rain showers from 93L are located about 50 miles offshore of the coast of South Carolina, as seen on Wilmington radar. These showers will probably move onshore between Charleston and Wilmington Saturday night and Sunday, bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the coast. At times today, 93L has had a cloud-free center resembling an eye on radar, but this was not a true eye, and winds are probably near 35 - 40 mph in the heaviest rain squalls near the center.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Podemos estar ante la primera Tormenta Tropical de la Pre-Temporada en está cuenca, recordad que oficialmente comienza el 1 de junio, cualquier alteración en los niveles de cizalladura o una absorción en exceso de aire seco, hará que el centro se quede expuesto y que la convección fluctúe, por lo que el sistema va muy pero que muy justito, suerte que está casi inmóvil, pero esto también es un factor que va en contra, pues muy pronto se va a zampar lo poco que hay de OHC por la zona, si es que hay algo de calor superficial, pues la SST anda más o menos alrededor de los 26º, justo el umbral para que se pueda desarrollar algo decente.

En seguimiento oficial por la NOAA


DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION     STORM
19/1745 UTC   32.1N     77.8W       T1.5/1.5         93L 

Imagen captada por el Terra/Modis



Lanzado Floater para el 93L



Carburando a toda leche, centro cubierto por topes moderadamente fríos y con mucha continuidad, en el siguiente parte, lo mismo pasamos del nivel naranja a una designación de Depresión Tropical.

Registrándose en estos momentos vientos de 40 KT, por lo tanto, Tormenta Tropical.

Nace la primera Tormenta Tropical de la temporada " ALBERTO "

invest_RENUMBER_al932012_al012012.ren

AL, 01, 2012051918, , BEST, 0, 323N, 776W, 40, 1007, TS,