Nuestro amigo 92L ya no está solo....

A puntito de caramelo. Presiento que al ritmo que va, habrá cambio seguro antes de las 20:00h. española.
1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF A
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. IF THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...
THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

Ya es la depresión tropical 01E

Cita de: Angetotti en Lunes 14 Mayo 2012 16:49:29 PM
Ya es la depresión tropical 01E

Así es Angetotti. Lanzado el ATCF por la Navy (No sé lo que pasa con la página de la Marina. Me pone NOT FOUND  )

www.nhc.noaa.gov


Le auguran un pico de intensidad de 35 kts solamente. Aún no han colgado el mapa de trayectorias en la página

Corrijo: Ya está

Nace la primera Tormenta Tropical del año en la EPAC
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 150231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
800 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

...DEPRESSION BECOMES FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR IN THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 108.5W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. ALETTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

En estos momentos se suceden las explosiones convectivas. La Navy le da un máximo de 45 Kts en 36 horas, antes de que las condiciones se tornen desfavorables para desarrollo.

El encontronazo con el enorme embosamiento de aire seco que está situado en todo el W del sistema ha reducido la convección profunda de manera importante.



Tiene las horas contadas para su extinción total.

Ando limitado de tiempo, por lo que no he podido realizar seguimiento 

Buen seguimiento 

Degradada a Depreisón, aunque el NHC sigue emitiendo partes sobre el sistema.

Tiene las horas contadas.

ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO
DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 H OR LESS. 

Aletta ya es historia tropical.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ABOUT 60 TO 90 N MI TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER OF ALETTA...THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...
ALETTA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST 12
HOURS. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.