Tormenta Tropical ALVIN (01-E. Pacífico Este - SO Manzanillo)

01EONE.30kts-1006mb

Primer Invest de la temporada en el EPAC, y ya tenemos lío. A ver si actualiza el NHC sus avisos, por que de momento:

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Vamos a ver que hace la bicha.

01EONE.30kts-1006mb

Primer Invest de la temporada en el EPAC, y ya tenemos lío. A ver si actualiza el NHC sus avisos, por que de momento:

¡Juer........! Si es que los han cogido "en bragas", sobre todo a la Navy.  ¿Pues no que ponen en su página el track de un sistema en el Pacífico occidental, al Sur de Japón y Corea?

Ya lo ha confirmado el NHC. Primera Depresión Tropical de la temporada en el Pacífico Este
01EONE.30kts-1006mb-80N-1031W
Primer parte del Organismo desde Miami:
Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 151441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS RIGHT
ON CUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.2N 103.6W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST.  THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


 
 

 

Ya lo comentaba en mis últimos post, que quería arrancar en tiempo la temporada por el Pacífico Oriental. Ahí tenemos la 01E con tufo a Tormenta Tropical, ALVIN le toca.

Según el NHC Huracán en par de día camino a la nada de momento, aunque ahora el GFS a largo plazo parece que la quiere mandar de vuelta a Mexico, aunque eso es a muchos días.

Saludos 

Habemus TORMENTA TROPICAL ALVIN. 


TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013
200 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1612 UTC SHOWED THAT THE DEPRESSION HAD WINDS
VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR A TROPICAL STORM.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED SINCE THE TIME OF THAT
PASS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM.  THE INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 35 KT.

Saludos 

Tenemos a Alvin:


...DEPRESSION BECOMES FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...

35 kt  1005 hPa

Sigue teniendo muy buen aspecto, con topes nubosos altos. Tiene buenas posibilidades de superar los 50kt, incluso puede llegar a alcanzar fuerza de huracán durante unas horas, no es algo demasiado probable, pero las previsiones contemplan esa posibilidad.


PD: Jo qué velocidad, Rayo...  .

PPD: Parece que la cizalladura tiende a incrementarse hacia el noroeste, supongo que eso mermará sus posibilidades si no sigue organizando su circulación estas próximas 12-24 horas que es cuando tendrá el ambiente más favorable.



Un saludo. 

01EALVIN.45kts-1003mb-89N-1065W
En la discursión destacan que sigue fortaleciéndose, pero muy lentamente, debido la la cizalladura moderada del W que incide sobre el ciclón y que hace que la convección principal no esté bien acoplada al LLCC. Tiene tres dias de plazo para fortalecerse, pues pasado ese plazo, interactuaría con una fuerte vaguada y la cizalladura sería prohibitiva.

Cizallado a más no poder  , y por si fuera poco, parece ser que se ha colado aire seco. El NHC ya no prevé que llegue a Huracán.

01EALVIN.45kts-1003mb-92N-1073W



Buen seguimiento chicos.

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013
200 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER ALVIN STILL HAS A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.  THE STORM IS STILL FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND
IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH FROM ANOTHER CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION A FEW HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  SINCE
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS WORSENED SINCE THIS MORNING...AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM
SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.  THIS COULD BE
OVERLY GENEROUS.

ALVIN ACCELERATED A BIT THIS MORNING BUT HAS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF
285/10 KT.  SINCE THE STORM HAS BEEN UNABLE TO DETACH ITSELF FROM
THE ITCZ...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ALVIN WILL MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD
PROGRESS.  IN DIRECT CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
NOW IN FULL AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING
THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT ALVIN IS BEING AFFECTED
BY 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SHEAR
WILL ABATE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE
STORM DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN LOWERED.  THIS FORECAST
ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.
ALVIN IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.
HOWEVER...ADVISORIES COULD BE TERMINATED AT ANY TIME IF IT IS
DETERMINED THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CLOSED CIRCULATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z  9.5N 109.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z  9.8N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 10.8N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 11.5N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 12.0N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 13.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 13.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1800Z 13.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Comentan que es difícil distinguir a ALVIN del cualquier otro cluster convectivo de la ZITC, que entre que no ha podido separarse de esta y la cizalladura ha perdido mucha definición y que pudiera se degradado aun antes de lo pronosticado si no se puede definir su circulación en las próximas horas, la que es posible que haya perdido.

Saludos 

ALVIN es historia, no pudo separarse de la ZITC y la cizalla hizo el resto, bye bye ALVIN 

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 170834
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...ALVIN WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 112.0W
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE000
WTPZ31 KNHC 170834
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...ALVIN WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 112.0W
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/H...AND THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/H...AND THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

Saludos