Tormenta Tropical ARLENE - 01L (Atlantico-2017)

Pues eso es, tenemos desde ayer una depresión subtropical en medio del Atlántico según el NHC, igual no ha pasado ni pasará de esta categoría.

Aquí tenemos la discusión de la mano de nuestro amigo Stewart:

Subtropical Depression One Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017
500 AM AST Thu Apr 20 2017

Data from nearby drifting buoys indicate that the subtropical
depression is now moving over sea-surface temperatures of 19C or
less. These cooler waters have resulted in a significant weakening
and erosion of the inner core convection during the past few hours.
In contrast, curved outer band convection has been increasing in the
eastern semicircle. Intensity estimates at 0600Z were ST1.5/25 kt
from TAFB and ADT T3.1/47 kt from UW-CIMSS. Although it is possible
that the system could have reached subtropical storm intensity
around 0300-0500Z when a donut-ring of moderate convection
completely encircled the low-level circulation center, the recent
rapid erosion of the central convection argues for maintaining an
intensity of 30 kt for this advisory.

The cyclone is now moving a little west of due north at 12 kt. As a
large extratropical cyclone located to the west of the depression
continues to amplify and dig southeastward over the next 24-48
hours, the subtropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest
later today, and move west-northwestward to westward tonight and on
Friday as a shallow remnant low. A 24-h position has been added
based on the 00Z ECMWF and GFS models now showing the depression
persisting as a well-defined, shallow low pressure system into
Friday before it is absorbed by the aforementioned larger
extratropical low.

The combination of decreasing sea-surface temperatures and
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of the large
extratropical low should act to steadily erode the associated
convection, resulting in the depression weakening to a remnant low
pressure system by tonight...if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 34.4N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 36.7N  41.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 38.0N  46.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Sobre aguas a 19ºC poco tiene que hacer un sistema aunque sea subtropical. Esto será historia dentro de poco.

Saludos

Aquí tenemos a la SD 01L, contrario a lo que podíamos imaginar ha mejorado visualmente generando algo de convección entorno al LLC aunque el pronostico sigue invariable, en pocas horas será recuerdo, en el blog de Jeff Masters discuten animadamente si ha llegado a ser en algún momento completamente tropical y si a llegado a ser Tormenta en algún momento.

Saludos

"AGAINS ALL ODDS"

Pues contra todo pronóstico tenemos a la Tormenta Tropical ARLENE en el Atlántico Norte,
Wind: 40 kts
Pressure: 993 mb
Coordinates: 37.3N 40.7W

Saludos

Pues si, la verdad es que no me esperaba que saliera el primer sistema nombrado de ahí, pero bueno. La verdad es que se han dado prisa en nombrarlo.

Bastante curioso, desde luego, a ver cuánto aguanta en esas aguas tan frías. Ahí queda también el precedente que sentó Alex el año pasado.


Saludos. 

ARLENE ya es historia, el NHC acaba de emitir el último parte, la pequeña ARLENE ha sido absorbida por un ciclón extratropical mucho mas grande.

RIP

Saludos