Tormenta Tropical BAKUNG (03-S. SW Jacarta-Islas Cocos-Océano Indico)

Humm.......Llevaba un par de dias observando a este pequeño sistema y parece que al final, va a desarrollarse, aunque los modelos más importantes no le dan mucho chance. En estos momentos ya tiene fuerza de Depresión Tropical con 30 kts-1000 mb. La Marina ya ha lanzado la alerta por formación tropical.

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8S 97.7E TO 9.7S 92.2E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
110130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.1S
97.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S
97.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 97.1E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH OF
COCOS ISLAND. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVING CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEPENING
CENTRAL CONVECTION. AN 110057Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND BUILDING CONVECTION AROUND THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE MOST RECENT PGTW FIX INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30
KNOTS, AND THE GFS MODEL IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.

SST de entre 29º a 30º C, valores moderadamente buenos, excepto la cizalladura, del orden de 10 a 20 kts.
Veremos.

Nace BAKUNG con 40kts-993mb, aunque su aspecto en las imágenes del SAT es bastante deforme. Pico de intensidad previsto en las Agencias de 60 kts. al borde de la Categoría 1.

A BAKUNG ya no le queda ni medio telediario. La cizalladura ha hecho su trabajo y tan solo queda un remolino de nubes bajas, con toda la convección importante muy desplazada al SE de su centro. Las agencias cierran su seguimiento.