BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...APPROACHING COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST.  THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE DEPRESSION COULD EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.  SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER LAND LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IF
THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA... NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



Saludos 

SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY
IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUESDAY



Gracias por abrir el topic

Tipico boloncio convectido asociado a los bandazos de la ITCZ.

Vamos, lluvias torrenciales en el N de Centroamérica durante los 2-3 proximos dias.

El NHC hoy no aventura a que el centro emerga en Campeche

Pues el centro ha salido a Campeche...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER THE SYSTEM WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL

El RECON va a tener que ser rápido. BARRY llamando ya a la puerta.
02LTWO.30kts-1006mb-194N-939W

TROPICAL STORM BARRY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
145 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW TROPICAL
STORM BARRY...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE
SEASON. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT REGULAR ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

Es curioso... Siempre hay sospresa en ese cacho del GOM, y siempre atraen más sospresas... 

...BARRY APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... 

Conveccion is up y organizandose

Último comunicado del NHC.. parece que pierde rápidamente la cat de tormenta tropical..

"OBSERVACIONES DE
SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE BARRY SE MOVIO SOBRE TIERRA JUSTO AL NORTE DE
VERACRUZ MEXICO ALREDEDOR DE LAS 8 AM CDT...1300 CON VIENTOS MAXIMOS
ESTIMADOS EN 45 MPH...75 KM/H.

A LAS 10:00 AM CDT...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BARRY ESTABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 96.6 OESTE.
BARRY SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KM/H...Y SE
ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIEMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24
HORAS...ADENTRANDO EL CICLON EN EL ESTADO DE VERACRUZ HOY.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMIUNIDO A CERCA DE 40 MPH...65
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUARA
DEBILITANDOSE...Y SE ESPERA QUE BARRY SE CONVIERTA EN UN REMANENTE
DE BAJA PRESION ESTA NOCHE O EL VIERNES.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70
MILLAS...110 KM AL ESTE DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARES...29.65
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...BARRY SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE
LLUVIAS DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL SUR DE MEXICO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR
INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENACEN LA
VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN AREAS MONTANOSAS."



Lluvias entre 70 a 100 litros y con máximos cercanos a los 250 litros m2, no esta mal....

...BARRY DEGENERATES TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE...