Tormenta Tropical BONNIE (03L-Bahamas-P. Florida.)

Nuevo parte especial del Nhc, ya es oficialmente Depresión Tropical 03 L






1. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

Jé.....como se nota que han esperado al visible...



A ver el parte, no debe tardar....

La marina ya actualiza sus datos. 3ª Depresión de la temporada

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 75.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ESE OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO
BONITA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

Sale el aviso del NHC, otorgando 30kts

THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AT THIS TIME AND ITS
CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING A
LITTLE...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE MOTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ON
HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES. THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A
STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP
TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/1500Z 21.9N  75.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 22.6N  76.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 23.8N  80.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 25.0N  83.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  86.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 28.0N  91.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 31.0N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/1200Z 33.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

NNNN



Y el RECON que ya ha salido.....Bonnie está cerca

Si hacemos caso a SHIPS, la cizalladura subirá en 24 horas. Posiblemente llegue a ser BONNIE, ya que Bahamas está rodeada de mucha agua, por lo que no habrá interferencia con tierra significativa, a no ser que se acerque a Cuba
Eso si, con cizalladura superior a 15kt, viendo el poco empaque que tiene, tampoco habría que darle mucho margen

Oíd, la depresión está en Bahamas, no Antillas....

El RECON sigue con su misión, según leo, registrando vientos de 30-35 kts, puntualmente alcanzando 36-38 kts, habiendo hecho ya la reduccion.

No han terminado aún.


ADT:-
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt

En las manos del NHC está, yo supongo que la nombrarán en el próximo parte, en base al RECON así debería ser...

El avión de reconocimiento ha encontrado una presión mínima de 1006 mb

ATCF no varía, baja la presión, pero mantiene vientos de 30kt. El caza es fundamental

AL, 03, 2010072218,   , BEST,   0, 222N,  749W,  30, 1007, TD,  34

Viendo animaciones de vapor de agua me da la impresión que la baja en altura está desplazándose al W bastante más rápido que 97L... o que 97L ha ralentizado su desplazamiento...eso debería favorecer la intensificación del sistema en breve.

PD: perdón, quería decir TD 03L en vez de 97L   

Intentando desarrollar bandas espirales nubosas en el sector NW...