Tormenta Tropical BONNIE (03L-Bahamas-P. Florida.)

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    INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010071906, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972010
AL, 97, 2010071906,   , BEST,   0, 191N,  624W,  25,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,
    0,





1. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN OVER THIS AREA...AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A MORE CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

Aquí le tenemos



A ver si salen los modelos

Aquí os dejo una animación del Invest 97 l.



Trayectorias de algunos modelos.

Nuevo parte actualizado, le siguen dando un 20% de posibilidades de desarrollo.




1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

Sagra, ponle una L mayucula al título del tópic, que queda mejor...

Bueno, pues para variar, SHIPS saca de aquí un Cat.1 en +120 h

Eso sí, su aspecto es muy bueno, pero no tiene circulación aún





 

Atención a este Invest, puesto que esperan un repunte bien fuerte en cuanto a intensidad:



Direcciones:

Nuevo parte del Nhc, sigue teniendo un 20% de posibilidades de desarrollo.




1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT
TIME.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Este es su aspecto actual:



Hablando de modelos , el Cmc ve un huracan, justamente en la zona del derrame del petróleo.



Animación

Yo creo que si de aquí no sale Bonnie ya nos podemos retirar....

De momento no hay vuelo programadado, pero si planeado para el Miércoles.



Increíble para un INVEST


 


A ver con qué nos deleita este INVEST

Viendo la evolucion y perspectivas del Invest 97L he topado con este blog que me ha parecido interesante. Aunque probablemente los que llevais mas tiempo en esto lo conocereis lo pongo para los nuevos (como yo) porque creo esta interesante. Hace una buena cronica diaria de los sistemas.

http://152.18.68.171/~pppapin/tropical.html

saludos

GFS, NOGAPS y CMC desarrollan la 97L, en distinto grado cada uno, pero ahí queda.
¿Saldrá por fin Bonnie? (como salga tendré que pedir disculpas a Stewart...  )

Ha mejorado un poco, le dan un 30% de posibilidades de  desarrollo.



1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA...RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN
CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF MORE THAN 5
INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

GFS, NOGAPS y CMC desarrollan la 97L, en distinto grado cada uno, pero ahí queda.
¿Saldrá por fin Bonnie? (como salga tendré que pedir disculpas a Stewart...  )

Pues si el GFS lo ve, y a 36 horas......vete preparando....





Y Mr. Barcos que se planta un Cat.2.


Mirad este radar....


Ese giro en capas medias y altas es sospechoso, de hecho lo comentan en el último parte del NHC.

UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE