DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL 04L


AL, 04, 2010080212,   , BEST,   0, 123N,  403W, 30, 1006, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  180,  50,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,

El NHC actualiza y da el primer parte.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 021435
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL042010
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 41.1W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR.  A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Saludos 

Ahí está la actualización....con un pico de 50kts

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.4N  57.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.





Y ha sido Brennan...cachis...

Planean RECON desdeel NHC, aunque nada oficial...

El aviso un poco mas ordenado...

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS MOVING RATHER BRISKLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
EVEN FASTER MOTION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
DEPRESSION IS STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING
IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE MODELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND THE HWRF AND ECMWF FARTHER RIGHT
SHOWING MORE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.

THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT AFTER THAT TIME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AROUND 65W.

IT COULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION WITH SUCH A FAST FORWARD SPEED...AND COULD OPEN BACK UP
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 12.6N 41.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 44.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.8N 48.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 16.4N 53.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.4N 57.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 22.0N 63.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 66.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 68.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

No veo claro que vaya a tocar Puerto Rico, parece que los últimos análisis la alejan más hacia del NE de esta isla.



El NHC no comenta nada de la OT que le sigue; a poco que el desplazamiento de la TD4 se ralentice seguro que interactuará con ella. Me sigue preocupando tanto aire seco alrededor .

Le está haciendo pupa la onda de detrás.....
Vamos a ver, esto puede dar mil vueltas...

Según ADT: -30kts

Distancia Santo Domingo: 1960 millas
Distancia Hamilton: 2028 millas

No se...si creo que conseguirá el nombramiento en las próximas horas, pero poco más...

La ya comentada influencia por detrás de la onda que la sigue....el aire seco al que se va a enfrentar, el aumento de cizalladura en +36 horas...

Esta como muy desecho o roto

El ambiente no es muy húmedo que digamos 

RH     65    60    61    61    59    57    57    60    63    60    59    58    55

No obstante, el ambiente de baja cizalladura debe permitirle que crezca algo. UNa tormenta de 50kt sería algo factible en estos momentos

CMC baja aún más su trayectoria en la salida de las 12z, en la que un débil Colin pasaría justo al sur de P.Rico y atravesaría Hispaniola para terminar impactando en Florida.
GFS también ha bajado la trayectoria algo, así como HRWF

El Europeo sigue sin ver nada destacable de esta DT, y por muy fiable que haya sido este año (y años anteriores) no será la primer vez ni la última que ha patinado de lo lindo así que no me fio.  

PD: os pongo un extracto del blog de Jeff Masters del año 2007, referente a Dean... a ver si encontráis similitudes con la situación actual. No digo que vaya a pasar lo mismo, seguramente no, pero me ha recordado lo poco que podemos confiar muchas veces en los modelos. Fijaros que ningún modelo excepto el UKMET contemplaba la posibilidad de que Dean cruzara el Caribe.  

CitarTrack forecast
Two major models--the ECMWF and NOGAPS--stubbornly refuse to develop Dean at all. These models are in great likelihood wrong. The GFS, UKMET, and new HWRF model all develop Dean into a hurricane that threatens the central and northern Lesser Antilles Islands Friday or Saturday. The big question is how strong the trough of low pressure predicted to pass north of TD 4 on Saturday will be. If the trough is strong enough, it may be able to pull TD 4 far enough north so that it misses the Lesser Antilles. Another big question is, will the trough spawn a cut-off upper-level low pressure system off the Southeast coast of the U.S.? If so, this feature could act to steer TD 4 on a more northerly track early next week, increasing the threat to New England and the mid-Atlantic coast. If not, a high pressure ridge is expected to build in, forcing TD 4 westward into Florida. It's far too early to know which of these scenarios might occur. In any case, there is a significant possibility that TD 4 will hit the U.S. as a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane. This could happen as early as Tuesday August 21. Of course, Dean could also stay farther south in the Caribbean, as forecast by the UKMET model, and eventually track into the Gulf of Mexico.

A salido el nuevo aviso , muy cerca de la fuerza de tormenta tropical , el pico de intensidad lo han aumentado un poco más a 55 KT en 48 horas 

 
Stewart ha hablado...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED ON THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF SHARPLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 13.0N  42.5W    30 KT
12HR VT     03/0600Z 13.8N  45.2W    35 KT
24HR VT     03/1800Z 15.2N  49.9W    40 KT
36HR VT     04/0600Z 16.8N  54.4W    45 KT
48HR VT     04/1800Z 18.5N  57.8W    55 KT
72HR VT     05/1800Z 22.5N  64.0W    55 KT
96HR VT     06/1800Z 26.0N  67.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 29.0N  69.5W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Según ADT: 32kts.

La verdad es que es bastante irregular, ahora mismo su aspecto no es malo....incluso es potable para ser catalogado como TT(a partir del satélite me refiero eeehhh )


Es inevitable...me cambio el nick....

Vaya....me he saltado la parte mas importante de la discusion....perdonad....

THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN
30 KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN WEAKENING OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THESE HIGH SHEAR VALUES MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE GFS HAVING MUCH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS COMPARED TO
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...AND ALSO DUE TO 500 KM RADIUS THAT THE
SHIPS USES IN COMPUTING SHEAR VALUES. IF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RATHER THAN OUTRUNNING IT
...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL END UP STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES.

Osease, que la resolución del GFS resulta ser un problema...
Bueno, ellos saben mas que nosotros....a ver si va a resultar que con el apoyo del CMC y algunos dinámicos, va a ser Major....