Tormenta Tropical CRISTINA, Pacífico Oriental.

Hace días que los modelos mostraban desarrollo en el Pacífico Oriental y al final ha sucedido. Tenemos a la Tormenta Tropical CRISTINA a  casi 800 Km al SW de México avanzando de momento a aguas de nadie.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 102.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 102.8 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days,
keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is anticipated and Cristina is forecast to become a
hurricane in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

En la discusión nos cuentan que a pesar de tener algo de cizalladura del NE de momento las condiciones pronto mejorarán y con aguas muy cálidas, baja cizalladura  y alta humedad CRISTINA debe pegar un buen levantón en los próximos 1-2 días pudiendo llegar a Major en 72 horas, lo que con un rumbo entre el WNW y el NW a partir de ahí  estaría moviéndose hacía un ambiente mas estable y aguas menos cálidas lo que haría que CRISTINA comenzará a debilitarse en los días 4 y 5.

Saludos

CRISTINA ha ganado en intensidad pero no como se esperaba.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

...CRISTINA CONTINUING AS A TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 107.7W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Durante el día de hoy aunque la convección se ha incrementado  el centro ha estado en par de ocasiones expuesto debido a la cizalladura del NE que no acaba de ceder aunque ya debía, por la misma causa el desarrollo de las bandas espirales es pobre, en especial en el semicírculo norte de la circulación.

Como ha demorado el desarrollo pero el llegar a aguas mas frías y ambiente estable sigue en tiempo (ahora a unas 48 horas)pues ya el NHC no le ve llegando a Major y comenzando a debilitarse en 36-48 horas, probablemente se disipe en unos 4 o 5 días.

Saludos

....CRISTINA casi es huracán.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020

...CRISTINA ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 111.1W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A gradual
turn to the west is forecast to occur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through tonight, and
Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. A weakening
trend should then begin by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Casi huracán y es probable que lo logre antes de comenzar a debilitarse a partir de mañana en la noche (unas 24 horas) a partir de que la temperatura superficial del mar por donde se desplazará bajará de los 26ºC necesarios para mantener la convección. Entre 72 y 96 horas CRISTINA será historia.

Saludos

Pues no lo ha logrado, hoy todo el día ha estado cerca pero ya en su última discusión el NHC comenta que es aspecto de CRISTINA se ha degradado durante la tarde producto de moverse sobre aguas mas frías. A partir de ahora a CRISTINA solo le queda ir debilitándose progresivamente hasta llegar a baja remanente en unas 72 horas.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 17...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Corrected issuance time zone to HST. ...CRISTINA HEADING INTO COOLER WATER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 115.5W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 115.5 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina is expected to begin weakening tonight, and is forecast to become a remnant low in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kodama

Saludos

Enviado desde mi HUAWEI CUN-L21 mediante Tapatalk

En efecto CRISTINA nunca logró se huracán y ya se debilita a marchas forzadas, moverse sobre aguas cada vez mas frías con aire estable y seco por delante prácticamente le han hecho perder casi toda la convección cerca del centro y la intensidad desciende a apenas 40KT (unos 75 km/h). El NHC le da apenas 24h y pudieran ser menos aun.

Saludos

Enviado desde mi HUAWEI CUN-L21 mediante Tapatalk

CRISTINA es un precioso remolino de nubes bajas y medias entrando en un mar de stratocumulos, sus vientos sostenidos  han descendidos al mínimo de tormenta tropical (35 nudos o 65 Km/h) le quedan unas 12 horas a lo sumo de seguimiento.



Saludos