Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EDT Fri Jun 05 2020
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 07 2020 - 12Z Mon Jun 08 2020
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO COASTAL ALABAMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CRISTOBAL...
...Gulf Coast...
The threat for excessive rainfall will continue to be associated
with Cristobal and the abundant moisture that will be streaming
inland in advance of the storm. Precipitable water values increase
to values between 2.2 inches and 2.6 inches from Louisiana into
the Florida panhandle by Sunday evening...some 4+ standardized
anomalies greater than climatology. Rainfall rates at or above 2
inches per hour are expected in the heavier rainfall bands...with
increased rainfall amounts expected close to the coast given the
enhanced convergence. Given the NHC track and the sprawling
nature of the storm, the heaviest rainfall directly associated
with the storms should be over parts of central and eastern
Louisiana and areas close to the coast in Alabama through 12Z
Monday...where areal average rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
expected with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. Given these
rainfall amounts and the anticipated rainfall rates, felt a Slight
Risk area was warranted. The 04/12Z GFS was faster than NHC
guidance and on an easterly trajectory...and the 05/00Z GFS was
even faster and even farther to the east. As a result, the GFS
QPF was not consistent with the guidance and given little
consideration in the deterministic QPF or in defining the
boundaries of the EROs. The overnight runs of the ECMWF, NAM and
UKMET generally fit the track better.
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