Tormenta Tropical FERNANDA (06E Pacífico Este y Central)

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

En poco tiempo tendremos nueva DT

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

En poco tiempo tendremos nueva DT

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

Pues viendo las últimas animaciones, parece que puede pasar directamente de Invest a T.T. FERNANDA.
Saludos.

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS ON A DEVELOPING TREND...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

Ya casi da el brinco 

Últimas imágenes del Invest 98E....y ya casi dando la cara como Fernanda, a lo mucho en 24 hr será una TT 

A priori, amenaza para las islas Hawaii

NUEVA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL 06E

06ESIX.30kts-1007mb-121N-1311W

Ambiente seco y pequeño tamaño, los mayores handicaps del sistema

Gana Convección ....

Nace "FERNANDA"

06EFERNANDA.40kts-1004mb-123N-1341W

El CPHC ya vigila a la reciente tormenta

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing advisories on tropical depression Six-E, located about 1515 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCMEP1 and WMO header WTPZ21. Tropical depression Six-E is not expected to cross longitude 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility until some time on Thursday.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through late Wednesday night.

Llega el parte oficial

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011

...THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS WELL AWAY FROM
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 134.5W
ABOUT 1775 MI...2855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...40KT...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FERNANDA IS PROBLEMATIC.  WHILE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MORE STABLE AIR AND
COOLER WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH.  HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
SHOWING CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE
SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF MODELS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT TIME...AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH
DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...THE FORECAST WILL
STAY LOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE GIVEN HOW CLOSE FERNANDA
IS TO MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.


Mmm, el NHC recula ligeramente. Dice que un ambiente estable y aguas frias al N del sistema, deben contrarrestar el ambiente favorable de cizalladura a corto plazo. No obstante, como los modelos dan mas fuerza a la tormenta, ellos lo contemplan, aunque tiran por el lado conservador