Tormenta Tropical FRANKLIN (06L Atlantico-Bermudas)

Como parece que todos andan de vacaciones paso abrir tema ya que tenemos un código rojo en el atlántico.



PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT VIERNES 12 DE AGOSTO DE 2011

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

ACTIVIDAD DE TRONADAS ASOCIADOS CON UN SISTEMA DE PRESION BAJA BIEN
DEFINIDA LOCALIZADO A 200 MILLAS AL NORTE DE BERMUDA SE HA VUELTO
MEJOR ORGANIZADO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. DESARROLLO ADICIONAL ES
POSIBLE ESTA NOCHE O SABADO ANTES QUE ESTE DISTURBIO SE UNA CON UN
SISTEMA FRONTAL. ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UNA PROBABILIDAD ALTA...60
PORCIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON TROPICAL O SUBTROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE DE
20 A 25 MPH.



De hecho este sistema de bajas presiones se forma en el seno de una vaguada frontal (creo que se denomina shear line) y muy probablemente para el domingo pierda todas las características tropicales que ahora exhibe, pero como de continuar progresando como lo ha hecho pudiéramos tener a FRANKLIN saliendo de ahí.

Saludos  

La proximidad del sistema frontal es evidente. Los mapas en superficie actualizados ya lo muestran embedido

 

ATCF NHC

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AL, 06, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 357N, 647W, 30, TD 1011,

Se esta organizando de manera vertiginosa.


Loop Visible




 

En efecto, entré en la página de la marina y ya ponen 06L SIX, cambio el título.

ATCF NHC

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AL, 06, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 357N, 647W, 30, TD 1011,

Saludos 

En efecto, entré en la página de la marina y ya ponen 06L SIX, cambio el título.

Cita de: Parungo en Viernes 12 Agosto 2011 22:24:16 pm

ATCF NHC

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Tropical Depression SIX RSS Feed icon    Storm Archive
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA...MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...



 


AL, 06, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 357N, 647W, 30, TD 1011,

Saludos 

Tropical Depression SIX RSS Feed icon    Storm Archive
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA...MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...

Mira bien,no deben tardar en adquirir nombre.

Saludos desde La Playa...

000
WTNT41 KNHC 130837
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062011
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A
LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.  AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0553 UTC SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL
FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM WERE BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH MORE
CURVATURE NOTED.  DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT AND 35 KT
FROM TAFB/SAB WITH AN AMSU-BASED ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS OF 37 KT.
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION AND STRUCTURAL
IMPROVEMENTS IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35
KT...MAKING THIS SYSTEM THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR.

FRANKLIN DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME LEFT TO INTENSIFY AS IT WILL SOON
BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST
TO INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CATCHING THE STORM FROM
BEHIND.  THUS...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS SHOWN IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE TYPES OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEMS
HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF THE STORM BRIEFLY BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
PREDICTED. 

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS ESTIMATED
AT 055/17.  FRANKLIN IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN MID-LATITUDE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD THE
EAST AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE.  THE LATEST FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY...AND LIES JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  A COLD FRONT CAN
BE SEEN A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...AND THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR...SHOULD
CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM
SMALL SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 37.9N  60.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 39.0N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 40.0N  52.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  14/1800Z 40.4N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  15/0600Z 40.0N  43.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

FRANKLIN Gana fuerza 

.06LFRANKLIN.40kts-1004mb-386N-589W

Franklin le queda poca vida....para mañana en la tarde puede que ya sea solo un remanente, saludos