Tormenta Tropical Fuerte IRINA (92S - Tormenta Tropical S.S - Madagascar)

Tal y como comentaba Torre en el Seguimiento Tropical , tenemos nuevamente movimiento por la activísima zona de Reunión y Madagascar.

Diferencias muy significativas entre el Europeo y el GFS. El Europeo lo manda al Canal de Mozambique   esquivando a Madagascar en su trayectoria, mientras que el GFS lo impacta de lleno en Madagascar.

Europeo



GFS



JTWC

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7S 75.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE
SYMMETRICALLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC
AND IS CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED WESTWARD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE IN THE REGIONS (29 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A BUILDING ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC
IS CREATING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (30 PLUS KNOTS)
OVER THE AREA, HINDERING CONVECTION FROM BUILDING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE STRONG VWS
AND ELONGATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Visible



Estaremos muy atentos a todo lo que pueda pasar con esta perturbación tropical , pero la cosa pinta verdaderamente muy mal para Madagascar. 

Condiciones ambientales muy favorables para un desarrollo potente y severo , tal y como indican los modelos en su ultima actualización. Por poner una pega , los niveles de calor oceánicos andan un poco bajos , la Ex-Giovanna a reducido las temperaturas superficiales de la zona por donde discurrió de manera significativa y este nuevo sistema va a pasar justo por donde lo hizo Giovanna.

Posibilidad también de que se produzca un efecto Fujiwara , ya que los modelos intuyen dos ciclones. Pero aun es pronto para esto.

 
 
 

Nefasta organización y convección desperdigada.

Meteosat Indian Ocean Data Coverage Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate West Indian Ocean



http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/index.htm

Cambio muy significativo en los modelos para dicho sistema. Tanto el Europeo como el GFS lo mandan al norte de Madagascar como una muy débil depresión , para un posterior fortalecimiento en el Canal de Mozambique.

92SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-130S-569E



 

Loop Visible

Meteosat Indian Ocean Data Coverage Visible 0.7 East Indian Ocean

Convección profunda al alza , generación de unos buenos topes fríos y síntomas evidentes de organización.



http://www.sat24.com

MeteoFrance sigue sin hacer mención al sistema.

MeteoFrance se pronuncia respecto al 92S

AWIO20 FMEE 251214
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2012/02/25 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
Transequatorial monsoon flow is established from the African coasts to 75E. Trade wind flow is
rather pronounced south of 14S and East of 70E.
Monsoon trough is pronounced along 13S/58E - 12S/65E - 11S/75E - 12S/88E.
Convective activity within the ITCZ is moderate to important within the monsoon trough
particularly within three distinct areas :
- between 50E and 60E, where convection has developed at the end of the last night, but last data
MW (TRMM of 0536Z) does not show any organisation or clear clockwise circulation. however a
low seems to develop near 12.6S/55.6E as pressions have clearly decreased on this area during the
next 24 hours ( -2hPa on Tromelin, -3.9hPa on Algalega), MSLP in this area is estimated at 1000
hPa (buoy NR 14041 at 10Z with a pression of 1001.2 hPa ).
- between 65E and 75E, where convection is strongly southeasterly sheared.
- East of 85E, where convection remains poorly organized.
Avalaible NWP models analyse the low north of Tromelin island, and deepen it progressively with a
quick westwards track towards north of Madagascar, on the northern edge of the subtropical belt
rebuilding southward. Monsoon feeding should remain favourable and trade-wind feeding should
improve. SST are favourable. Upper VWS should remain moderate, north of the upper tropospheric
ridge, and should slow the deepening of this system.
Secondly, NWP models analyse a broad clockwise circulation within the ITCZ, east of 85E, but
don't deepen it significantly. Indeed, this area should remain under strong upper VWS.
For the next 24 hours, the potential for development of a tropical depression is poor. Beyond,
potential becomes fair to important for the low north Tromelin.



Poca chicha hasta que no entre en el Canal de Mozambique.

 

La marina eleva a Medium al 92S pero supongo que no lanzarán la alerta por formación ciclónica hasta que no llegue a aguas del Canal de Mozambique.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 53.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. A 251440Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH STRONG CONVERGENT
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE OVER THE
EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC SHOWS 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND SHARP
TROUGHING WHILE LIMTED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE
SLP NEAR 1001MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING WHILE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR AND WILL
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Las piezas van encajando poco a poco.

 

Meteosat Indian Ocean Data Coverage Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate West Indian Ocean



 

Consolidándose rápidamente y mejorando notablemente su anillamiento convectivo , por lo que la marina finalmente lanza la alerta por formación ciclónica.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

92SINVEST.30kts-1000mb-137S-517E



Afectando al Norte de la provincia de Alternativo y saliendo ligeramente al Canal de Mozambique , por lo que en las próximas horas el ciclón se va a fortalecer de manera sensible.

MeteoFrance : 20-25 KT
La marina : 30 KT

 

Tremendos topes fríos y explosiones convectivas esta generando el sistema.





 

http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/index.htm

Pronostico RSCM MeteoFrance Reunión

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/26 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
24H: 2012/02/27 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/02/27 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 45.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/02/28 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/02/28 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 42.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/02/29 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/01 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/03/02 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 40.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



 

Tenemos a IRINA

MeteoFrance actualiza y eleva los vientos a 40 KT.

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/11/20112012
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/02/2012 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.8 S / 50.9 E
(TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEAN