Futuro Gaston en camino.Recién salido del horno





En 45' tenemos el primer aviso, pero ya está anunciado en portada del NHC

Drifting buoy 44857 recently reported a minimum
pressure of 1009 mb near the center of the low, which is a 8 mb
decrease from earlier today. An ASCAT-C pass from several hours ago
showed maximum winds of about 35 kt in the northeast and northwest
quadrants.  Based on that data, the initial intensity is increased
to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Gaston

Pico de 50kts rozando Azores

Interests in the Azores should monitor the forecast for Gaston

Cita de: Torrelloviedo en Martes 20 Septiembre 2022 23:44:56 PM
Interests in the Azores should monitor the forecast for Gaston

Y tanto que monitor

55kts-1000mb

Cerca de ser huracán, está desarrolando un eyewall





Pico de 60kts

Ultimas imágenes



Outflow bastante decente, puede tener chance de ser Huracán, yo creo que lo hará

Por el visible, se ve mucha cizalladura por el tercer cuadrante.

Gaston is not purely tropical and is likely a hybrid system
gaining energy from baroclinic sources.

Because the latest forecast track of Gaston brings the cyclone near
or over the western and central Azores islands before becoming
post-tropical, The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for their western and central island chains.

Azores ya emite avisos de Tormenta Tropical

Cita de: Torrelloviedo en Miércoles 21 Septiembre 2022 15:13:11 PM
Por el visible, se ve mucha cizalladura por el tercer cuadrante.

SSMI
overpass shows that the system is tilted in the vertical due to
west-southwesterly shear

Gaston coge un poco de aire, pero será por poco tiempo


The upper trough that is helping to maintain the deep convection is
forecast to lift northward later this morning and be replaced by a
ridge, which should induce strong northwesterly shear over Gaston

No se va a extratropicalizar, pero la fuerte cizalladura, aire seco, y SST de 24ºC lo van a convertir en fosfatina a medida que se desplaza al Oeste

A ver si es capaz de aguantar algo más, pero los modelos no apuestan por ello