Tormenta Tropical GASTÓN (09L-MDR)

Cada vez tengo más clareo que hará como Colin...



1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Joder(con perdon), entre Bonnie, Fiona y éste engendro....así yo también cumplo mis previsiones de 18 sistemas nombrados...

WITH REGARDS TO GASTON...NHC IS INDICATING A 20% CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AND A 43%
CHANCE OF ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME
FRAME. GIVEN OUR CURRENT LIMITED SKILL IN INTENSITY FORECASTS
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN. GLOBAL
MODELS STILL LIKE GASTON AND DEVELOP IT INTO A HURRICANE IN FIVE
DAYS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES IT
SHOULD ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR REGENERATION.
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR LARGER TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST TO
ABSORB GASTON AS IT CATCHES UP TO HIM HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHLY
SPECULATIVE. ANYWAY...EVEN IN THE CASE OF GASTON COMING BACK TO A
TROPICAL STORM ANY EFFECTS WOULD NOT BE FELT UNTIL AT LEAST TUE
AT THE EARLIEST AND NOT LIKELY UNTIL WED OF NEXT WEEK. SO ENJOY
THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MAKE SURE TO TUNE BACK ON MONDAY TO
SEE WHAT IS GOING WITH THE TROPICS.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=SJU&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Si se diera el caso de que una onda tropical abosrbiera a Gastón, supongo que tendrían que renumerarlo como hicieron con Katrina en 2005... que pasó de la TD10 a la TD12

SO ENJOY
THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MAKE SURE TO TUNE BACK ON MONDAY TO
SEE WHAT IS GOING WITH THE TROPICS.

Esto es del NHC?
 

El unico que no da bola a Gaston es el europeo....
El GFS primero a Puerto Rico.


Y despues al Golfo de Mexico, como quien no quiere la cosa.


Yo me espero cualquier cosa...

Está mejorando de nuevo... 

No hay mas que ver la vorticidad.



Trayectorias...


Esperemos a Gaston pues....

Citar

SO ENJOY
THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MAKE SURE TO TUNE BACK ON MONDAY TO
SEE WHAT IS GOING WITH THE TROPICS.

Esto es del NHC?
 

Es el Labor Day, el Lunes, no sáis malos... más les vale por lo que les espera...


GASTON, efectivamente coge fuelle.

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF GASTON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Sigue mejorando, este año hemos visto engendros depresionarios con peor aspecto

más les vale por lo que les espera

Pues como no evolucione ya tendremos lío en la zona de Cuba-Hispaniola.....

La vorticidad ha descendido algo....


Re-Colin volverá

Baja de 1009 mb a 1008 mb

AL, 09, 2010090312,   , BEST,   0, 145N,  413W,  25, 1009, LO
AL, 09, 2010090318,   , BEST,   0, 149N,  419W,  25, 1008, LO

LGEM lo mete como cat. 3 en el Caribe

AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 12, 152N, 433W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 24, 154N, 447W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 36, 153N, 466W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 48, 154N, 492W, 42, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 60, 152N, 514W, 49, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 72, 150N, 535W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 84, 149N, 558W, 69, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 96, 150N, 584W, 83, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 108, 149N, 609W, 97, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 120, 149N, 633W, 110, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Pues sí que está cogiendo buen aspecto y aumentando la convección. Ha ganado muchos enteros desde ayer y esto demuestra que estamos ya en el punto álgido de formaciones. Lo que más me preocupa es la trayectoria que pueda coger de ahora en adelante, porque algunos modelos lo mandan al Caribe, entrando al Sur de Sotavento.