Tormenta Tropical GERT (06-L. Islas Antillas - Atlántico Norte)

Va a durar 3 avisos este sistema



Visible imagery has shown a partially-exposed, well-defined
low-level circulation for the past several hours. Infrared imagery
has also shown deep convection persisting since around 0600 UTC east
of the center with cold cloud tops of less than -85 degrees C.
Therefore, the system now meets the necessary requirements to be
classified as a tropical cyclone.

The depression is currently in a hostile environment with strong
deep-layer vertical shear, and dry mid-level relative humidities.
These conditions are expected to persist, with the depression
expected to be fairly short-lived.

Si con esto no ha logrado ser nombrada, no lo hará ya;

Although deep convection has persisted this morning, deep-layer
westerly shear is expected to increase to near 40 kt today and
remain steady during the next 24 hours.

Cero opciones vaya.

Cero opciones vaya.

 

Recent satellite wind-derived data indicated that winds in the
northeast quadrant were a little over 35 kt.  Conventional enhanced
infrared imagery showed cooling cloud tops of -85 Celsius in the
same region of the cyclone.  Accordingly, the depression is
upgraded to a tropical storm on this Special Advisory.

No changes to the forecast track and intensity philosophy are
required.  Since the environment is still expected to be
hostile with very strong westerly shear during the next day or so,
Gert should degenerate into a remnant low later today, and
dissipate by Tuesday.



Si no fuera por ASCAT 

Penúltimo parte sobre GERT;

Gert appears to be on its last legs tonight.  While some convection
remains near the small cyclone, the surface circulation is becoming
less well defined, and the system could be opening up into a
trough.  I don't have enough confidence to issue the last advisory
based on the satellite data alone, so for continuity Gert will
remain a 25-kt tropical depression. 

 

El NHC le nombró y le mantuvo "vivo" en base a parámetros técnicos pero a la vista del satélite poco había allí.

Saludos

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized during the
past several hours in association with an area of low-pressure
located several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands.  If this current trend continues, a tropical
depression is likely to form today before upper-level winds
become increasingly unfavorable over the weekend.  The system is
forecast to meander over the subtropical Atlantic through this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Encima a la izquierda, FRANKLIN, encima a la derecha, JOSÉ. Debajo, GERT

After more than a week of meandering over the central Atlantic, the
circulation of former Tropical Storm Gert has again become well
defined, and the system has acquired enough persistent and
organized deep convection for it to be classified as a tropical
depression once again.

Ventana a poder adquirir de nuevo el status de Tormenta, brevemente, antes de ser engullido por Idalia