Tormenta Tropical JOSE (11L Bermuda)

91L UPDATED:

UPDATED...SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS
INCREASED THIS MORNING. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN LESS
FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT
BERMUDA TODAY...AND INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


-LLCC expuesto y la convección hacia el SSW

000
WTNT41 KNHC 281200
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011
800 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS MAINTAINED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE LOW HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERAL BURSTS
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER BURST NOW BEGINNING JUST EAST OF
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO 2.0 AND
SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35
KT...BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTED THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 35 KT. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR
OF 40-50 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
HURRICANE IRENE...IS HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION WITHIN
36 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEFORE LOSING
ITS IDENTITY.

GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER
SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1200Z 30.8N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 32.4N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 35.0N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

¿Y esta tontería? 







MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT JOSE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY LATE MONDAY.

La cizalladura supera los 30kt según SHIPS, con humedades muy bajas debido al paso de IRENE. Lo único que le beneficia es un oceano cálido por arriiba y por abajo

Este no pasa de 40kt si algun forecaster del NHC se da un golpe en la cabeza...

Este no pasa de 40kt si algun forecaster del NHC se da un golpe en la cabeza...

 

A ver si en vez de uno son dos...

000
WTNT41 KNHC 282043
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

JOSE REMAINS A SMALL AND STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 1334 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED
A COUPLE OF UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF ABOVE 35 KT. ALSO...WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR ON
BERMUDA AND ALSO BY A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTH OF BERMUDA.
GIVEN THE COARSE RESOLUTION OF ASCAT DATA AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE...THE COMBINATION OF THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ASIDE FROM THE EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FORECAST...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION OF JOSE QUICKLY BECOMING DEFORMED AND DISSIPATING IN A
DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE AND
INDICATES DISSIPATION WITHIN 36 HOURS.

JOSE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 360/14.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REGARDING THE TRACK.  JOSE SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST PRIOR TO DISSIPATION
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 33.2N  65.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 35.7N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 39.7N  63.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART

Cosas más serias se han visto en el Atlantico Oriental y han pasado por encima de ellas...

...JOSE RACING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY...

THE VERY COMPACT
TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM

Visto y no visto

...JOSE DISSIPATES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...REMNANTS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...