Tormenta Tropical JULIAN (11-L. M.D.R. - Islas Azores - Atlántico Norte)

Desde hace un par de días tenemos nuevo área de seguimiento


1. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Little development
of this system is expected during the next day or two due while
it moves northwestward at about 15 mph over marginally conducive
ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds. 
Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Track previsto


Aún hay cierta incertidumbre con la trayectoria. Pero estará merodeando Azores la semana que viene

Hay bastante aire seco en la zona, a ver como va blindándose en las próximas horas

the system lacked  sufficient organized deep convection
to be considered a tropical cyclone by definition

Lo va a tener complicado

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 33.0N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 34.6N  47.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 36.8N  43.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 39.5N  39.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0000Z 43.4N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  31/1200Z 47.9N  36.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

Nace Julian gracias a ASCAT, con 45 nudos

Pico de 50 nudos hasta que se extratropicalice en 24-36horas