Huracán LINDA cat1 (Pacifico Este)

el señor ávila tira la casa por la ventana...
destaco en negrita...

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 092034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2009

LINDA IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE DATA. THERE IS A HINT OF AN EYE ON VISIBLE IMAGES...WITH A
RING OF CONVECTION ON MICROWAVE DATA. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. LINDA STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY AND BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...AND BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
START AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
96 HOURS OR EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH IN FACT DISSIPATES LINDA BEYOND
72 HOURS.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF LINDA AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALREADY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. LINDA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD THEN MOVE VERY LITTLE.
THE SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE IS EVEN LARGER THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY BEYOND
48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/2100Z 16.7N 129.0W    60 KT
12HR VT     10/0600Z 17.7N 129.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 130.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N 131.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N 132.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 23.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     14/1800Z 24.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA









le quedan 12-24 horas para sacar 5 nudos....

un saludo avergonzado

...LINDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...

- LINDA ha conseguido el status de Huracán, al organizarse mejor y presentar un ojo definido. Por tanto 70kt de intensidad de vientos... pero por poco tiempo... cizalladura de 20kt de aquí al final del pronóstico y SST de 27ºC, provocarán que LINDA quede como baja de aquí a 96 horas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0300Z 17.1N 129.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 18.1N 130.1W    70 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 19.3N 131.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 20.2N 131.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 21.2N 132.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 22.5N 133.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 23.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     15/0000Z 24.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

Pues de momento, Linda resiste, a duras penas pero resiste. Y pensar de que nadie daba un duro por ella y ha conseguido llegar a Huracán cat.1
Ya, a partir de mañana, se espera un progresivo deterioro de las condiciones para la vida de Linda. No hay nada más que ver el modelo en WV ó los mapas de cizalladura.
Esto es lo que dice el último parte del NHC:
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 101437
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2009

...LINDA A LITTLE STRONGER...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1340 MILES
...2160 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

LINDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.4N 130.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

baja a TT con 55 nudos

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/0300Z 19.9N 130.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 20.8N 131.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 21.7N 131.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 22.1N 132.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 22.3N 132.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 22.5N 133.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

LINDA está al borde de la extinción. Mantiene 40kt en el último parte, aunque como el propio NHC dice...

SSTS OF 25C...SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRY
ENVIRONMENT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT RESURGANCE UNLIKELY...AND UNLESS
THIS OCCURS LINDA WILL BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING

SST de 25ºC, cizalladura de componente S, y ambiente de aire seco, hacen que cualquier resurgimiento sea poco probable, y a menos que esto ocurra, LINDA será declarada como Baja Remanente esta noche

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/111434.shtml

La convección se ha volatilizado en menos de 24 horas



 

bastante dió de si la pobre...
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 112042
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 11 2009

LINDA CONTINUES AS A VIGOROUS BUT CONVECTION-FREE CIRCULATION...AND
A FEW MORE HOURS OF THIS WILL RESULT IN THE TERMINATION OF
ADVISORIES.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 15Z CAUGHT JUST ENOUGH OF THE
CIRCULATION FOR ME TO PRESUME THAT SOME TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
REMAIN...BUT WITHOUT ANY ACTIVE CONVECTION THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LAST LONG.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MOTION HAS SWUNG OVER A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT...OR ABOUT 310/5...AS LINDA RESPONDS TO THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW.  IN ADDITION...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS LESS EMPHATIC ON THE
NORTHWARD TURN DISCUSSED EARLIER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS
AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE BODY OF GUIDANCE
THAT IS EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/2100Z 20.7N 131.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 21.1N 131.9W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 21.4N 132.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 21.6N 133.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 21.7N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 avergonzado

Una imagen vale más que mil palabras



Todo el LLCC al aire, limpico de convección. El próximo parte, vigésimo, será el último

 

El NHC emitió con ese comentado vigésimo parte, el último sobre la Depresión. LINDA es historia tropical