Nuevo sistema en investigación el el Pacífico Este.



...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. BOTH GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE
IN THE SHEAR FAVORING ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 16.7N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/0000Z 17.1N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  13/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  14/0000Z 18.2N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  14/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  15/1200Z 21.0N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  16/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

De momento no parece según lo que pronostican en el NHC que vaya a mucho más, TT moviéndose por los mares al sur de Baja California para ir a morir en medio de la nada.

De llegar al TT Toca Kristy.

Saludos 

Pues llegó. Según la Marina, nace la decimoprimera tormenta tropical en el EPAC con el nombre comentado anteriormente por Rayo. 11EKRISTY.35kts-1005mb-181N-1063W. Y veremos a ver si el aire seco le deja desarrollarse algo, porque la cizalladura se encuentra entre los 5 y los 10 Kts.
Saludos.

Sube a 40 Kts-1005 Mb. y mejora su aspecto a duras penas. Veremos como está mañana, porque la Navy le sigue dando un pico máximo de 50 Kts.
Saludos.

KRISTY se arrastra penosamente por el Pacífico Mexicano.

Discusión

CitarTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
800 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2012


THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...IT COULD HAVE DETERIORATED A LITTLE
BIT...AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE...KRISTY IS HEADING
TOWARD COOL WATERS AND APPROACHING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ON THIS
BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE
IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE...AND KRISTY
WILL PROBABLY DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW. THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH SINCE MOST OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...AGREE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST SOLUTION. IN FACT...THIS PATH IS VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 18.9N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  14/0000Z 19.5N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  14/1200Z 20.2N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  15/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  15/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  16/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  17/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1200Z 26.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Poco que comentar, puede ganar algo en organización en los próximas 12-24 Horas pero después tiene las horas contadas.

Saludos 

El NHC nos comenta que KRISTY será baja remanente hoy, poco queda.   

Saludos