Abrimos topic, para el Invest 94-W cuando las agencias ya comienzan a vislumbrar un fuerte desarrollo de este sistema, situado al SW de Luzón, con el código ROJO. Lanzada la alerta por formación tropical.
94WINVEST.20kts-1004mb-120N-1151E
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
118.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 117.4E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS IMPROVING, THE MSI
INDICATES THAT SYSTEM IS STILL WEAKLY DEFINED AND MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL
VORTICES COULD BE PRESENT. A 050155Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE DEVELOPING BANDING STRUCTURE ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. A 050452Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE LLCC AND CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21
PGTW 050900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION
OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.