El JTWC emite su primer parte sobre la tormenta
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAMI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 43.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 43.5E
HOWEVER,
THE CURRENT TRACK IS TAKING TC 13S OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MADA-
GASCAR, AND THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND WILL CAUSE DISSIPATION TO
BEGIN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMF
SOLUTION, WITH THE LLCC BRIEFLY INTENSIFYING UPON MOVING BACK OVER
WATER, BUT STARTING TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AFTER TAU 48.
La actual trayectoria lleva a la 13S sobre el S de Madagascar, y los efectos de la interaccion con tierra causarán la disipación en las próximas 12 horas. El pronóstico actual va con el ECMWF, con el LLCC intensificándose brevemente sobre el agua, pero empezándo a debilitarse debido al incremento de cizalladura despues de 48 horas
...AND
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WITH TC 13S BEING ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITS STRUCTURE AND STRENGTHEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT MOVES BACK
OVER WATER
... y un escenario alternatico es posible, con la 13S siendo capaz de mantener su estructura, fortaleciendose más significativamente una vez que regrese al oceano
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