Fuerte sistema en la EPAC, al que el Centro Nacional de Huracanes le da bastante vida desde su comienzo, tal como expone en su primer parte:
94EINVEST.20kts-1009mb-120N-981W
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ENXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Sube a 30% / 80%

Europeo.


GFS tambien desarrolla debilmente. A ver en qué queda finalmente.

Ya era hora, que la Marina ya hace un buen rato que lanzó la alerta por formación tropical.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND
THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH

Ha perdido algo de organización, pero la 15-E está al caer.



1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Después de casi haberlo conseguido y de haber caido estrepitosamente en su desarrollo, hasta cancelar las alertas por formación tropical, comienza de nuevo a mejorar.

1. LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA A UNA AMPLIA ZONA DE BAJA PRESIÓN LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE MANZANILLO (MEJICO) SIGUE SIENDO ALGO DESORGANIZADA. AUNQUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESTÁN CONVIRTIENDO POCO A POCO MENOS PROPICIA PARA EL DESARROLLO...UNA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL PODRÍA FORMARSE DURANTE EL SIGUIENTE DÍA O DOS. ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UNA OPORTUNIDAD MEDIA ...50 POR CIENTO... DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLÓN TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PRÓXIMAS 48 HORAS. Y UNA PROBABILIDAD ALTA ...60 POR CIENTO... DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLÓN TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PRÓXIMOS 5 DÍAS, MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE U NOROESTE,  ALREDEDOR DE 10 MPH.

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

15EFIFTEEN.30kts-1005mb-157N-1098W
Le ha costado, pero ya tenemos nueva Depresión en el EPAC, según la Marina. A la espera del primer parte del NHC, éste es el aspecto que presenta a esta hora de la madrugada.
EDITO:

CitarBULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 110.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Pico de 40 kts. y trayectoria derechita al Sur de Baja California. Más lluvia para una zona necesitada.

15E FIFTEEN 131013 0600  16.6N  110.6W EPAC    40  1002

OCTAVE un poco más fuerte.15EOCTAVE.45kts-998mb-178N-1118W
De la última discursión sobre el sistema, cabe destacar que a pesar de que los topes nubosos se han calentado, la convección ha crecido justo en el centro del sistema. La presión ha bajado y tiene unas 12 horas con buenas condiciones, con aguas cálidas y baja cizalladura. A medida que ascienda y se vaya acercando a las costas de Baja California Sur, aguas más frías y cizalladura en torno a los 30 kts. debilitarán al sistema hasta dejarla como una baja remanente, desprovista de toda convección. Veremos.

Cuidado...

55kts-995mb



En el IR se puede  ver que le queda por consolidar el primer cuadrante.

LISA 2010 REVIVAL

Vamos a ver que nos aclaremos.

THE INNER
CORE CONVECTION NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL RING OF CONVECTION ABOUT
100 NMI IN DIAMETER WITH A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED
NEARLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE RING.

HOWEVER...SEVERAL
PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL EYE
FEATURE IS TILTED MORE THAN 20 NMI TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE JUMPED SHARPLY TO
T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT A 1639Z ASCAT-B OVERPASS ONLY REVEALED 35-40 KT
WINDS WITHIN 20 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND A 1725Z ASCAT-A
OVERPASS ONLY INDICATED 45 KT IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT OCTAVE MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURES
INDICATE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY BLENDS THESE ESTIMATES AND IS
GENEROUSLY SET TO 55 KT.

Osea, dicen que Octave es un corderito vestido de lobo, no es tan fuerte como se creía en un principio por que su LLCC se encuentra levemente desacoplado con la circulación en altura, y el ASCAT solo ha mostrado vectores de 34-40kts, y la fuerza de sus vientos ha sido elevada a 55kts siendo generosos....



Ya...En fín...

Yo no digo nada, pero ese infrarrojo es esclarecedor. Para mí los 55 nudos son justos.

Sí, sí.......totalmente desacoplada ¿No te digo?
Lo que no explican es porqué en discursiones anteriores le daban tan poca vidilla al sistema, dándole un pico máximo de intensidad de 40 kts. y ahora se les ha subido de forma real a 55 kts.