Tormenta Tropical OLIVIA (15.E - Pacífico Este)

Tenemos una nueva depresión tropical en el Pacífico Este.

Se trata de la depresion tropical 15 E.

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invest_RENUMBER_ep962012_ep152012.ren
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    INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 15, 2012, DB, O, 2012100518, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, EP152012
EP, 15, 2012100500,   , BEST,   0, 132N, 1107W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 15, 2012100506,   , BEST,   0, 133N, 1124W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 15, 2012100512,   , BEST,   0, 133N, 1140W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 15, 2012100518,   , BEST,   0, 132N, 1155W,  30, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  50,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
EP, 15, 2012100600,   , BEST,   0, 135N, 1165W,  30, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  50,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
EP, 15, 2012100606,   , BEST,   0, 137N, 1172W,  30, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  50,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
EP, 15, 2012100612,   , BEST,   0, 138N, 1178W,  30, 1008, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  50,  40,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,



000
WTPZ45 KNHC 061451
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION FOR
THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN FACT...BOTH TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY
FOLLOWS THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGE...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
LEAVING THE DEPRESSION IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON THE GENERAL SLOW
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS...AND
SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST.

VISIBLE IMAGES AND PERHAPS MICROWAVE DATA LATER TODAY WILL GIVE US
A BETTER DESCRIPTION OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE NECESSARY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 14.0N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 16.0N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 16.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z 16.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


El nombre que toca es Olivia.

Gracias por abrir el Hilo de seguimiento Sagrijeño 

---

Rescato cierta información proporcionada por el compañero Sudoku

Pues tal como comenta Hard abrimos topic sobre la futurible OLIVIA antes de que se "disipe", ya que las condiciones no son muy buenas que digamos. El manto de aire seco que la rodea, solo deja un pequeño resquicio hacia el WSW. Es por eso que tanto la Navy como el NHC no le de más de 40 Kts. en su corta vida.

Se organiza rápido y su anillo convectivo comienza a generar buenos topes fríos, por lo que no tardará mucho en pasar a Tormenta Tropical, pero tal y como comenta Sudoku, el aire seco acabara por reducir la convección y desorganizar el sistema.

 

Tormenta Tropical OLIVIA

15EOLIVIA.35kts-1006mb-138N-1192W

20121006   1800    13.6   119.4     T3.0/3.0       15E  NONAME   



 

Se está fortaleciendo y organizando significativamente... No es que las condiciones de humedad sean las más apropiadas para una intensificación importante, pero de momento el sistema carbura, la cizalladura no le molestará y se encuentra sobre aguas muy cálidas. Creo que es cuestión de pocas horas que supere la barrera de los 50kt, y tiene papeletas para alcanzar intensidad de huracán el lunes.

Según el NHC:
1004hPa 40kt


Un saludo. 

Continua mejorando Olivia hasta alcanzar una fuerza de 50 kt con una presion minima de 998 mb.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 070847
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012

WINDSAT AND SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATE
THAT OLIVIA HAS A TIGHT INNER CORE...AND RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BROKEN AND SOMEWHAT
DISCONNECTED FROM THE INNER CIRCULATION.  NONETHELESS...DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A
CONSENSUS OF THESE NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.

OLIVIA IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM 29C WATER AND HAS RELATIVELY GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  THE CYCLONE IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO BEFORE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW OLIVIA TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ALTHOUGH
ONLY THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND HWRF MODELS SHOW OLIVIA REACHING
HURRICANE INTENSITY...THEIR SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE SINCE STORMS
WITH COMPACT INNER CORES TEND TO STRENGTHEN MORE EASILY THAN THOSE
WITH BROADER CIRCULATIONS.  AFTER 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BECOME DECOUPLED.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
LIES NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE STORM HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
295/7 KT.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
BEING ON ITS WESTERN FLANK...OLIVIA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY THIS
TIME TOMORROW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...LED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
WHICH SHOW THE MOST PRONOUNCED NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE NHC TRACK HAS
BEEN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION...NOT GOING AS FAR AS THE ECMWF AND
GFS BUT ENDING UP NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD DECOUPLE THE
CIRCULATION...AND THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION IS FORECAST TO TURN
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 14.4N 120.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 15.1N 121.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 16.0N 121.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 16.7N 121.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 17.0N 122.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 16.5N 123.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 16.0N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 15.5N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$

Se ha quedado finalmente estancada Olivia, en el ultimo parte le dan una fuerza de 50 Kt con una presion mínima de 999 mb.

Ademas se espera que en las proximas horas que vaya perdiendo fuerza poco a poco.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 081432
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
800 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND A TRMM OVERPASS AROUND 1000 UTC INDICATE THAT
OLIVIA IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE
EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT. GIVEN THE
CURRENT ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF OLIVIA...AND BECAUSE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY
WEAKENING. OLIVIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3
DAYS...WHEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLED. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
RECENTLY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/3. LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS. A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
TUESDAY AS OLIVIA WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS
AIDS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 16.6N 121.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 16.8N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 16.8N 121.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 16.6N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 16.2N 123.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 15.2N 125.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

El nhc, ya ha dejado de seguir este sistema.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090837
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2012

OLIVIA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING FARTHER
AWAY FROM WHATEVER FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS REMAIN.  THE SYSTEM NO
LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS BECOME A REMNANT
LOW.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON CI NUMBERS OF 2.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALLOWING THE CIRCULATION SOME TIME TO SPIN
DOWN.  CONTINUED SHEAR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS NOW BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD...OR
220/6 KT...AROUND A LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE
REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A MORE PRONOUNCED TRADE WIND REGIME.  THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST STILL LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND
IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 15.2N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TRO[/b]P/REMNT LOW
 12H  09/1800Z 14.8N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/0600Z 14.2N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/1800Z 13.6N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG