Joder con el Pacífico Oeste, se descuida uno un momento y de la noche a la mañana le sale una Tormenta Tropical.

15WTORAJI.35kts-996mb



Se espera que alcance 50 kts camino de Japón.

Por ahora se mantienen los vientos a velocidad constante de 35 kt, datos tomados a las 4:36 UTC y a las 6:16 UTC, si que parece que llegará a 50 pero descenderá rápidamente casi sin llegar a Japón. Ese aumento coincide con una pequeña sección del mar con temperaturas que llegan a 30º.


3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PASSING DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER AN
AREA OF WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING AND TRACK SPEEDS WILL SLOW AS
THE TROUGH PASSES AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION ACROSS KYUSHU. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, TS 15W WILL TURN
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE INTENSITY OF TS
15W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF 50
KTS UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING
VWS FROM THE PASSING TROUGH AND BUILDING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. TORAJI IS FORECAST TO FIRST BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS IT IS DRIVEN POLEWARD
BY THE STR NEAR TAU 72. THIS INTERACTION WILL BEGIN THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SEA OF JAPAN ONCE TORAJI CROSSES THE RIDGE
AXIS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED BY TAU 96
AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHEAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 36, ALTHOUGH AT VARYING TRACK SPEEDS. AFTER TAU 36,
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS A BIFURCATION REMAINS IN THE
GUIDANCE DUE TO VARYING SOLUTIONS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING
STR. NAVGEM, ECMWF, AND THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE INDICATE A VERY STRONG
STR, WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND DRIVES THE WEAKENED
VORTEX NORTHWEST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. GFS, HWRF, AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO QUICKLY ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD THE TROUGH AND DO NOT BUILD THE RIDGE IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REBUILDING STR AND BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS

Toraji un poco más fuerte camino de las costas japonesas.

45kts-989mb

Toraji parece que ha alcanzado su pico de intensidad antes de impactar contra las costas japonesas con:

50kts-985mb

Su aspecto en el canal IR no es del todo malo. De hecho parecen intuirse las paredes del eyewall en algunos cuadrantes, pero su velocidad de desplazamiento es demasiad elevada como para un fortalecimiento y organización mayores.