a ver si se aclara
primero que era porque los cinturones de convección iban lentos, ahora porque van rápidos,
nada más, y nada menos, que comparándolo en un solo ciclo (y ni eso)
claro que hay un hecho que contradice el modelo y que les hace cambiar de estrategia: El modelo no funciona,
o lo que es lo mismo, No tienen ni idea de lo que está pasando, se les escapa la dinámica interna:
...
Could it be that sunspots are not rooted to the bottom of the Conveyor Belt, after all? "That's one possibility" he notes. "Sunspots could be moving because of dynamo waves or some other phenomenon not directly linked to the belt."
...
(vamos, que me gustaría saber si tan siquiera el modelo contempla variaciones orbitales
)
un recordatorio de hace 4 años,
Solar physicist David Hathaway of the National Space Science & Technology Center (NSSTC) explains: "First, remember what sunspots are--tangled knots of magnetism generated by the sun's inner dynamo. A typical sunspot exists for just a few weeks. Then it decays, leaving behind a 'corpse' of weak magnetic fields."
Enter the conveyor belt.
see caption"The top of the conveyor belt skims the surface of the sun, sweeping up the magnetic fields of old, dead sunspots. The 'corpses' are dragged down at the poles to a depth of 200,000 km where the sun's magnetic dynamo can amplify them. Once the corpses (magnetic knots) are reincarnated (amplified), they become buoyant and float back to the surface." Presto—new sunspots!
All this happens with massive slowness. "It takes about 40 years for the belt to complete one loop," says Hathaway. The speed varies "anywhere from a 50-year pace (slow) to a 30-year pace (fast)."
When the belt is turning "fast," it means that lots of magnetic fields are being swept up, and that a future sunspot cycle is going to be intense. This is a basis for forecasting: "The belt was turning fast in 1986-1996," says Hathaway. "Old magnetic fields swept up then should re-appear as big sunspots in 2010-2011."
Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.
"History shows that big sunspot cycles 'ramp up' faster than small ones," he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011."
Who's right? Time will tell. Either way, a storm is coming.
Solar Storm Warning
..The speed of this circulation system, called a meridional circulation, changes slightly from one sunspot cycle to the next. The circulation is faster in cycles shorter than the average 11-year period and slower in cycles longer than the average period. This is a strong indication that this circulation acts like an internal clock that sets the period of the sunspot cycle.
The circulation also appears to influence the strength of future cycles, as seen in the number and sizes of the sunspots produced, not in the cycle immediately following, but rather in a two-cycle or 22-year time lag. When the flow is fast, it concentrates the magnetic field at the Sun's poles. These stronger fields are then transported downward into the solar interior where they are further compressed and amplified to become the intense magnetic fields that form sunspots years later.
The Sun is now in the declining phase of the current sunspot cycle that peaked in 2000 and 2001. Because the circulation flow was fast during the previous cycle, the astronomers believe the next cycle will be a strong one, peaking in the years 2010 and 2011.
Powerful 'conveyor belts' drive Sun's 11-year cycle, new evidence suggests(si esto fuera como con los políticos que su mandato solo dura cuatro años...)
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