Sale el parte.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF
BLAS IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MORE EASTERLY SHEAR
ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY UW-CIMSS.  WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED
CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
INCREASED TO 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OBSERVED INTENSITY TRENDS...AND SHOWS A PEAK AT 12 HOURS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL.  WHILE NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS BLAS REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY...THERE IS
ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT BLAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ACCORDING TO PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE BASED ON
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ERRORS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/1500Z 16.3N 109.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 111.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.7N 112.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 16.9N 114.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 17.0N 116.8W    45 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 120.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 124.5W    25 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 15.5N 128.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


 

NHC mantiene la intensidad en 55 kT según el ultimo parte, el Nº 10

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM AMSU...SSMIS...SSM/I...AND WINDSAT
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BLAS REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS THAT BOTH INDICATE ABOUT 10
KT OF NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR OVER BLAS.

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BLAS HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY.
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/2100Z 16.7N 110.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.1N 113.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 17.3N 115.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 17.3N 117.7W    40 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 121.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 125.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 129.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

mmm, no lo creo Sudoku, en el microondas de hace 3-4 horas no se veía nada.
Mucha cizalladura, convección desplazada al SO...



 

zona desfavorable



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Vaya, éste es como una mosca cojonera, cuándo crees que ya va a desaparecer de una vez, ahí está y sigue y sigue dando la lata...

Las previsiones no son muy optimistas...
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0900Z 17.5N 112.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.7N 113.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 115.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 18.1N 117.6W    25 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 119.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.2N 123.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Vaya, yo que no le daba mucha chance, y mantiene los 40 kt
Bueeeeno, desde el NHC no lo matan directamente, aunque luego en el pronóstico si...

BLAS HAS A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION BUT THERE ARE NO BANDING
FEATURES.  BLENDING DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES YIELDS A WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SOMEWHAT...THE STORM IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS AND INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/1500Z 17.6N 113.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 17.9N 114.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 18.1N 116.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 18.1N 118.8W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.9N 120.8W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Es carne de cañon, bueno, del aire seco, en este caso.