Ahi está el 4º parte avisando de lo que comentaba, el NHC baja a Blas a Tormenta Tropical de
35 ktDestacoTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS STILL WELL REMOVED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LIMITED CONVECTION. SINCE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 35
KNOTS. IN FACT...A RECENT ASCT PASS SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF ONLY 30
KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. BLAS
COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED SINCE IT SEEMS THAT STABLE AIR
IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CYCLONE IS NEAR
COOLER WATERS. NONE OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.8N 106.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 107.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.3N 108.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 16.7N 109.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 17.0N 114.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 16.5N 120.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
La cizalladura se lo está cargando, se mantiene aislado del aire seco por otro lado, que ya es un logro.
Dvorak por otra parte le otorga
43kt, aunque no actualiza desde hace mas de 10 horas.
Saludos