Tormenta Tropical BLAS (03E Pacífico E)

La marina oficializa a la 3ª Depresión de la temporada en el EPAC

Pues Torre, mira que visible...



A ver que nos comentan en el parte.

PD: Sigo sin poder abrir ese link  ¿será tema de mi pc? ahora os pregunto a ambos por privado

Perdón, cosas de los navegadores; copiar y pegar la dirección URL, de otra forma no se abre.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Y llega el parte:

WTPZ43 KNHC 171451
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
800 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BECOME
PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A
1215 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS ON THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BALL OF CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 2.0...30 KT...AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY
SHEAR...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT THE DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER MEXICO SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
WOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY MOVED THE PRECURSOR LOW FROM THE
DEPRESSION MUCH TOO QUICKLY TO THE WEST...PROBABLY BECAUSE IT HAS
BEEN ENTANGLED IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SEPARATED FROM THAT FEATURE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 15.3N 105.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.4N 105.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 105.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 15.7N 106.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 15.9N 107.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Vaya hombre, tenemos a 2 probables tormentas tropicales que puede que no lo sean por los pelos...

aunque el aspecto de esta es magnifico...para que engañarnos



 

Trayectoria.


Además le dan alrededor de un 70% de posibilidad de que se convierta en la Tormenta Tropical Blas en el próximo parte.

De momento nada anormal en infrarrojos y microondas.



 

2ª Tormenta Tropical de la temporada, BLAS

000
WTPZ63 KNHC 171537
TCUEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010
840 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

DATA RECENTLY RECEIVED FROM A SHIP INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM BLAS...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.  NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ARE BEING MADE AT THIS TIME. 

SUMMARY OF 840 AM PDT...1540 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 105.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR....35kt
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Dice que no hay cambio en previsiones. Esto era lo que comentaba en la última discusión

THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY
SHEAR...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM

La Depresión tiene una pequeña opotunidad de fortalecerse en el próximo dia o asi antes de que la cizalladura de este, la SST más fria, y el aire seco afecten al sistema

Tenemos a Blas ya!
000
WTPZ63 KNHC 171537
TCUEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010
840 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

DATA RECENTLY RECEIVED FROM A SHIP INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM BLAS...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.  NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ARE BEING MADE AT THIS TIME.  

SUMMARY OF 840 AM PDT...1540 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 105.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

me pisaste Torre...

Posible centro en 105.3W 15N?

No veo que dure mucho tiempo, además parece que algo de aire seco, podría entrar en el sistema, aparte de eso, la temperatura del agua del mar por donde se mueve, no es como para tirar cohetes, en un rato navegará en zona con mejor cizalladura, pero por lo demás no lo tiene todo a su favor.





Veremos como evoluciona 

Tengo datos del Barco... (cortesía de Wunderground)
Cargo ship named Maersk Dhahran , call-sign A8PX5. At 15Z it was at 15.10N 105.60E and reported 40 knot winds. At 16Z the same ship observed 39 knots at 14.70N 105.40E

Por cierto, el aire seco es el principal factor en su contra, a ver que es capaz de hacer...
En este mapa se aprecia lo que comento.


Mmmm, parece que algo quiere organizar,aunque nada claro de momento...





Un saludo

Nuestro amigo BLAS...

Me saldría un chiste fácil, con el seguimiento que activa el NHC y el 02E, pero no me apetece...

Juasss
 
Otro para el frenopático que se viene...
Bueno, datos Dvorak:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 / 998.8mb/ 32.0kt
A ver que decís vosotros, pero veo topes nubosos fíos pero no demasiado buena organización, sobre todo en el cuadrante NE.



pd:el siguiente es Celia, no Epi...

Pues actualiza el NHC y le da 40kt

Destaco

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW
STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT TO THE EAST OF BLAS...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE IN A DAY OR SO. AROUND THAT
TIME...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING DEEPER INTO AN AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND...PRESUMABLY...A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF BLAS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODELS...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/2100Z 15.2N 105.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.4N 106.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.6N 107.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 16.2N 108.8W    40 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 16.7N 115.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N 119.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Objetivo conseguido entonces, la unica duda es saber su fuerza maxima de vientos.

Saludos