Ciclón Tropical 03-A (SSE Karachi - Mar de Arabia _ Indico Norte)

Buenas tardes.
Comienzan a verse ya algunos "bichos" por esta cuenca, en cuanto aflojan los Monzones. Y este año no podía ser menos. Sistema que de momento los principales modelos, no creen que pase de Tormenta Tropical S. S. por el aire seco imperante en la zona y la cizalladura algo alta, a pesar de la temperatura del agua del mar.

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 69.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 592 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FLARING
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A FULLY EXPOSED WEAK LLCC. THE
101115Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS REINFORCES THE POSITION OF THE LLCC TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LIMITED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES
AND PGTW. WHILE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VWS THROUGHOUT THE ARABIAN SEA, THE LLCC CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
CONVECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW MOVING,
ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE VERY WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT INTENSIFICATION TO BE
MARGINAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 24, TC 03A WILL TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A STR MOVING EAST FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 03A MAY PEAK ITS INTENSITY AT 45 KNOTS BY TAU 96
AS IT WILL GAIN MORE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT A
DECAY OF THE SYSTEM. ALTERNATIVELY, THE VAST AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MAY
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN PREDICTED.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS LIMITED AND DIVERSE IN ITS SPREAD,
SPECIFICALLY IN THE EARLY STAGES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z
IS 10 FEET.

Alcanza la Categoría de Tormenta tropical S. S. con 35 kts-996 mb, pero con aspecto muy desdibujado y toda la convección desplazada al SW del centro.

Se desfonda. A pesar de las fuertes explosiones convectivas, su centro aparece como un "remolino" de nubes bajas al ENE de toda esa convección, por la excesiva cizalladura y el aire seco que penetra en la circulación del sistema. En el último parte de las agencias baja a 25kts-1004mb