94SINVEST.
30kts-1000mb-
139S-554EAhora si que da un pequeño salto..
. El RSMC empieza a manifestarse al igual que el JTWC ( FAIR ). Como comenta la marina , buena organización en las ultimas 12 horas , buenas circulación y una profunda convección.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 57.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 55.8E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH OF LA
REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) W
ITH A LARGE
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CENTER AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 090300Z AMSU IMAGE SUPPORTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY, OVERALL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED DUE TO A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
Por la otra banda ....
ZCZC 791
WTIO30 FMEE 090656
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/5/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (05 20102011) 2.A POSITION 2011/02/09 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 55.8E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST
6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :
25 KT Meteo France le ve un pico de intensidad de
80 KTSaludos.
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