Entorno muy favorable tanto en cizalladura, aguas muy cálidas, como en los niveles medios y altos, con buen flujo de salida, para seguir con desarrollo cuasiexplosivo en las próximas 48 horas, hasta estamparse contra Madagascar. Este es el último parte del JTWC:
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 60.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AROUND A PIN-HOLE EYE
WHILE MAINTAINING A HIGHLY-SYMMETRICAL AND COMPACT BANDING. WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION DISPLAYS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A VERY
EFFICIENT POLEWARD CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED OVER THE
EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM FMEE (115 KTS), PGTW (115 KTS)
AND KNES (90 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 12S IS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN A DIFFLUENT
ZONE UNDER A RIDGE AXIS. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, AN EXTENSION OF A SECONDARY STR
CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER MOZAMBIQUE WILL ASSUME STEERING. THE
TRANSITION WILL BE SEAMLESS AND WILL MERELY CAUSE A SLIGHT
FLATTENING OF THE FORECAST TRACK. GIOVANNA WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS PEAKING AT 135 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR AND EXITING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER
TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
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