REMARKS:180900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 81.5E.TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NMNORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD CLOUD SHIELD CONSOLIDATING OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS FROM A MONSOONAL TYPE PATTERN TO A MORE CHARACTERISTIC TROPICAL STRUCTURE. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A SYMMETRIC CENTER, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM (40 KNOT) WINDS AT APPROXIMATELY 25 NM. THE INITIAL POSITION AND STRUCTURE IS BASED ON THE ASCAT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, AND IS ALSO BASED ON THE ASCAT DUE TO UNREPRESENTATIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. TC ONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE (NESR) BUILDS OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BEGINNING AROUND TAU 48, THE NESR WILL REORIENT AND MOVE EQUATORWARD AND TC ONE WILL BEGIN TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A DISSIPATION TREND OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AS THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON TC ONE, AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME.
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