Ciclón Tropical VANIA Categoría 3(Tormenta Tropical 05P-Vanuatu/Nueva Caledonia)

60 KT 975 HPA





Algún registro de precipitación

Airport La Roche - Situado al E de la isla de Dudune : 198 mm 24h
Vao - Lle des Pins - Situado al S New Caledonia : 78 mm 24h




Vania en acción...

65 KT 970 HPA

Wow... Severe Tropical Cyclone Vania Category 3  

HURRICANE WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 13/1319 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6 SOUTH
167.7 EAST AT 131200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.6S 167.7E AT 131200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS

FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.3S 167.2E AT 140000 UTC
AND NEAR 22.4S 167.1E AT 141200 UTC



Y por si fuera poco para la zona.... Encima esto...

7.3 earthquake 1755 km (1090 miles) ENE of Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, at 3.16am on Friday...Situado el Epicentro en New Caledonia....

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1625Z 13 JAN 2011

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1617Z 13 JAN 2011
COORDINATES - 20.7 SOUTH 168.7 EAST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.3


Numero de Fallecidos oficialmente por Vania = 3

Saludos..

Pues la marina le rebaja la intensidad

05PVANIA.55kts-982mb-210S-1672E

Y con razón

65 KT 970 HPA

Wow... Severe Tropical Cyclone Vania Category 3  

HURRICANE WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 13/1319 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6 SOUTH
167.7 EAST AT 131200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.6S 167.7E AT 131200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS

FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.3S 167.2E AT 140000 UTC
AND NEAR 22.4S 167.1E AT 141200 UTC


Y por si fuera poco para la zona.... Encima esto...

7.3 earthquake 1755 km (1090 miles) ENE of Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, at 3.16am on Friday...Situado el Epicentro en New Caledonia....

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1625Z 13 JAN 2011

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1617Z 13 JAN 2011
COORDINATES - 20.7 SOUTH 168.7 EAST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.3


Numero de Fallecidos oficialmente por Vania = 3

Saludos..

Pues menos mal que pierde intensidad y se aleja hacia el SSW. Miedo me daba que le hubiese dado por irse hacia el W y encima que se le hubiese sumado un maremoto. Lo que le faltaba al ENE Australiano
Saludos.

Imágenes de los efectos de VANIA

Port Vila , Vanuatu




New Caledonia

VANIA azota al SE de Nueva Caledonia, aunque no con mucha intensidad. EL centro está bastante distorsionado en base a un aptrón el altura nada favorable, con cizalladura cercana a 20kt

Además, se aproxima a aguas no-tropicales. Una transición es lo más factible. Veremos en que estado llega a Nueva Zelanda

Pues ojito con Vania que puede dar algo más de guerra.
Según los DG's del GFS no perderá simetría hasta dentro de 48-60 horas.



Aspecto actual.


Veremos, yo creo que fortalecerse no lo va a hacer, pero venirse abajo tampoco.

Para que hablaré.

Debilitamiento rápido.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE WEST
OF TC 05P CAUSING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT. TC 05P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ULTIMATELY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) AROUND TAU 36. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY ACT TO DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM BEFORE IT COMPLETES ET TRANSITION

Asi que poca vida le queda.



40 kts.

VANIA es historia tropical. El JTWC acaba de emitir el último parte sobre el ciclón

EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) O5P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA